[Decoding France] - "Things Fall Apart, the Center Just About Holds"

New Twists in the Political Drama-but Not Yet a Regime Crisis

The sequence of events we are currently witnessing-from the fall of François Bayrou’s government to the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu’s cabinet, with the social protests of September 10 and 18 in-between-marks yet another twist in more than a year of political turbulence in France. It should be stressed that this is still a political upheaval-and not yet a crisis for the regime. Despite the toxic atmosphere in the National Assembly, institutions are holding up. Legislation continues to be passed-sometimes under surprising conditions, as with the end-of-life bill. France also has a budget for 2025 in place. To put this in perspective: The much-maligned Fourth Republic saw twenty-four governments over the course of more than a decade with an average lifespan of six months-but the system continued to function.

What we are currently experiencing is not a regime crisis but a historic moment in the literal sense of the word. Last December, when Michel Barnier’s government was toppled by a no-confidence motion, many declared it a historic moment. It was not, strictly speaking, unprecedented, as parliament had adopted such a motion back in 1962. Bayrou’s case, however, was different-for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, a prime minister fell not after a censure vote but after failing to win a vote of confidence. Up to that point, every prime minister who asked for confidence received it. In fact, no prime minister had even sought a vote of confidence since Jean Castex in 2020. Elisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal, and Michel Barnier-like many before them-addressed parliament but deliberately avoided putting their governments to a vote. Bayrou broke with that tradition-and history will remember that gamble as his undoing.

Social Anger: The Factor That Changes the Equation

In addition to the political crisis, a social crisis is looming and has already resulted in two protests. The first took place on September 10, stemming from a nebulous movement that originated on Telegram loops and was then taken up by the radical left. Due to a lack of clear demands and structure, this movement, which called for "blocking everything" ("bloquons tout"), was short-lived, and has not resulted in the return of a new form of "yellow vests" (gilets jaunes)-at least not yet.

The mobilization on September 18 was of a completely different nature, with between half a million and one million people taking to the streets at the call of the inter-union coalition. The September 18 protests revealed three challenges unfolding on three different timelines.

• Short term: The demonstration’s success, as measured in terms of both turnout and calm. With between half a million and one million people in the streets-and no major incidents-the unions can claim victory. They did better than the "block everything movement" and put pressure on Lecornu.
• Medium term: Shaping the new government’s agenda and France’s budgetary trajectory. For this, the unions must articulate their demands clearly. They have issued an ultimatum to Prime Minister Lecornu: integrate their priorities into the budget or face new mobilizations. With Lecornu unmoved so far, further protests are already planned.
• Long term: Restoring credibility to organized labor. Since the failed fight against pension reform in 2023-echoing earlier defeats like the 2016 labor law battle-many doubted whether the unions still mattered. Horizontal leaderless movements such as the yellow vests or "bloquons tout" seemed to have replaced them. The last union-led mobilization that truly forced a government retreat was the 2006 protests against the First Employment Contract (CPE). Since then, the only demonstrators to win real concessions were the yellow vests. Whether unions can break this cycle remains to be seen.

What Kind of Budget for 2026?

In an interview with Le Parisien on September 26, Sébastien Lecornu presented the first lines of what he called a "compromise budget" for 2026, targeting a public deficit of "around 4.7 percent." The focus remains on cutting spending, with €6 billion in reductions planned for the state and its operating costs. But Lecornu also sought to reassure: "This will not be an austerity budget, nor a socially regressive one." He promised increased funding for pensions (+€6 billion) and healthcare (+€5 billion).

Notably, he ruled out Bayrou’s controversial idea of scrapping public holidays, dismissed a revival of the wealth tax, and rejected economist Gabriel Zucman’s proposal for a 2 percent annual levy on fortunes over €100 million-though he acknowledged rising demands for tax justice. He also confirmed that suspending Elisabeth Borne’s pension reform is off the table.

By contrast, the Socialist Party’s counter-budget includes €14 billion in savings (cutting corporate subsidies and administrative costs); €26.9 billion in new revenues, targeting wealth and large corporations; the famous "Zucman tax" and other measures like the reform of dividend and capital gains taxation; a stronger fight against tax and social fraud; and a 1 percent levy on very large inheritances (€1 billion). They also proposed a €10 billion plan for investments and public services and-no surprise-the suspension of the pension reform.

In that context, with the Social Party voices being indispensable for Lecornu, can a budget even be voted on in time? Some parties’ "red lines" are others’ requirements, and it seems very difficult today to satisfy both the Socialist Party and the Republicans, both of which are necessary for a center-led coalition to pass a budget. Formally, the draft budget must be submitted before the first Tuesday of October. Time is running out, and a repeat of last year’s delays looks likely.

Macron at the UN: Palestine Recognition Abroad, Impeachment Talk at Home

At the UN General Assembly, Emmanuel Macron drew headlines by recognizing Palestine-a bold move in France’s foreign policy. As our geopolitical advisor Michel Duclos wrote last week, Emmanuel Macron experienced his "2003 moment." He showed that France’s diplomatic voice still counts, as is evident from the many other countries that joined the movement to recognize the State of Palestine, including the UK, Canada, Australia, and Portugal.
At home, however, debates over his legitimacy continue.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI) is still pushing for impeachment. Article 68 of the Constitution allows for the removal of the president for "a breach of his duties manifestly incompatible with his mandate." But the bar is sky-high: Admissibility must be approved by the National Assembly’s Bureau, then by two-thirds of both houses, and finally by a specially convened High Court. Politically, this is close to impossible.

Others have suggested that Macron should announce his resignation in advance to allow for a proper campaign in 2027.

But neither impeachment nor resignation appears realistic right now.

Is Another Dissolution Looming?

The idea no longer seems absurd. Above all, social mobilizations are shifting the landscape, pushing the Socialist Party toward harder lines on the budget. Admittedly, no one has any interest in this-except perhaps the National Rally-but if Lecornu’s proposed budget is too far removed from the demands of the inter-union group and Lecornu himself, the Socialists will have no choice but to censure it. Initial polls also showed that even without their former allies in LFI, they could avoid disaster. Against this uncertain backdrop, much of the debate resembles a political bluff. The Socialist Party knows the centrist bloc is deeply reluctant to risk a dissolution, and so it is raising the stakes by leaning into its most radical faction. Lecornu may yet call this bluff, calculating that the Socialists would struggle to face voters again under pressure from an uncompromising LFI. And hovering in the background are financial markets, unlikely to sit idly by in the face of prolonged political brinkmanship.

Still, projections for a new legislative election remain highly uncertain. France’s two-round system makes outcomes hinge on local dynamics, withdrawals, and the possible re-emergence-albeit in reduced form-of the "Republican Front" against the far right. Abstention, meanwhile, would be likely to rise, as the French are weary of endless political crises.

Jordan Bardella knows this, which is why he insists that he will only go to Matignon with an absolute majority. Should he achieve it-which is unlikely but not impossible-the RN could use two years in government to claim experience and credibility ahead of 2027 while blaming Macron for blocking their program.
In any snap election, Macron’s camp would be the clear loser.

Sarkozy: A Historic Conviction, Institutions Under Strain

In a final thunderclap in a September already packed with political drama, former President Nicolas Sarkozy has been convicted in the so-called "Sarkozy-Kadhafi affair" and has been found guilty in the first instance of criminal conspiracy. The judges ruled that Sarkozy had entered into a corruption pact with former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in exchange for the illegal financing of his 2007 presidential campaign.

The court handed down a sentence of five years in prison-with immediate enforcement though deferred imprisonment-along with a €100,000 fine, five years of deprivation of civil, civic, and family rights, and five years of ineligibility to run for political office.

Sarkozy thus becomes the first president of the Fifth Republic to be sentenced to actual prison time, stripped of his civic rights, and divested of his national honors.

For some, this sentence demonstrates the resilience of the rule of law. For others, it underscores how deeply damaged French politics has become-when a former head of state is caught up in corruption scandals, even as the current political class struggles to govern.

One thing is certain: This new chapter will do little to reconcile the people of France with their political class.

Copyright Ludovic MARIN / AFP
France's President Emmanuel Macron and Sebastien Lecornu at Merdeka Palace in Jakarta on May 28, 2025.