[Decoding France] - Back to Normal?

A Budget at Last-But with Public Finances in Freefall

It took four months of heated debate, three uses of Article 49.3 (which allows the government to pass a bill without a vote), and one fall of the government for France to finally adopt a budget. After the Senate’s final vote on the social security budget on February 17, the parliamentary marathon came to a close-but it was far from a triumph. Never before in the history of the Fifth Republic has it taken so long to approve both the State and Social Security budgets. It’s done now, offering a moment to catch one’s breath. One might argue that this should come as a relief, as the cost of deadlock and repeated votes of no confidence could be worse than a flawed budget, however rushed or incoherent. But there’s little to celebrate. The 2025 budget, shaped by countless concessions and retreats, barely addresses France’s pressing challenges-chief among which is the need to reduce debt and deficits.

If there was any sense of relief, it was quickly dampened by the damning report released by the French Cour des comptes (the "Court of Auditors," the supreme body for auditing the use of public funds in France) on February 13. Famous for its measured tone, the institution did not hold back this time, warning of an "unprecedented drift," a "particularly concerning sequence", and a country "up against the wall" in "absolute urgency." The numbers speak for themselves: a public deficit of €175 billion (6 percent of GDP, up from 5.5 percent in 2023 and 4.7 percent in 2022), public debt nearing €3.3 trillion, and annual interest payments reaching €59 billion. France is now the only country in the EU where public finances continue to deteriorate, forcing it to negotiate an extension on meeting the EU’s 3 percent deficit target from 2027 to 2029.

PM Survives No-Confidence Motions but Political Distrust at Record High

François Bayrou’s government has narrowly survived six no-confidence votes in just two months. These failed attempts were largely due to shifting strategies within two key political forces: the Socialist Party and the National Rally.

The Socialist Party (PS) has definitively distanced itself from Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise, opting not to support the government but to reject chaos. As PS leader Olivier Faure repeatedly put it, "We refuse to pursue the politics of the worst, which would only lead to the worst politics: the rise of the National Rally."

Meanwhile, the National Rally (RN) has also changed tack. After voting to topple the Barnier government in December, Marine Le Pen’s party now seeks to project an image of institutional respectability, abstaining from further censure attempts. This shift suggests the RN is already positioning itself for the 2026 municipal elections and, more importantly, the 2027 presidential race-especially as Marine Le Pen faces a looming court decision on March 31 that could render her ineligible to run.

Political tensions escalated further after the prime minister’s controversial remarks about a "feeling of migratory submersion". These comments sparked an immediate, though unsuccessful, censure motion from the Socialists and reignited divisive debates on national identity and jus soli-particularly regarding the overseas territory of Mayotte, where immigration from the Comoros is exceptionally high (among the island’s inhabitants, 48 percent are said to be immigrants from the Comoros or other African countries, according to a 2019 study by Insee). A restrictive measure on birthright citizenship for Mayotte was already passed in 2018, with no tangible impact on migration flows.

These debates have unfolded against a backdrop of deep political distrust, as highlighted by the latest survey from Sciences Po’s CEVIPOF. Political confidence in France is now at its lowest since the Yellow Vest crisis. Only 23 percent of the public trust Bayrou’s government-the comparable figures for trust in government are 38 percent in Germany and 35 percent in Italy. Meanwhile, just 28 percent believe democracy is functioning well. Worryingly, 48 percent of French respondents agreed that "democracy is inefficient, and we need less of it to get things done"-a record high. Even more alarming, 41 percent supported the idea of "a strong leader who doesn’t need elections or Parliament", a sentiment unseen since 2017. Calls for a return to order are growing, with 73 percent of French people favoring "a strong leader to restore order," compared to 60 percent in Germany and Italy.

The scandal implicates both religious and secular staff, and during his tenure as Minister of Education, Bayrou allegedly ignored warnings about the abuse. More recently, as the case resurfaced, he is accused of lying about his past knowledge of the events. This only deepens the growing distrust we just outlined.

Emmanuel Macron: Reclaiming His Turf

Where does this leave President Macron? Interestingly, his approval rating has seen a slight uptick, reaching 21 percent in the latest ELABE poll-a three-point rise from last summer’s record lows. Though still deeply unpopular, he seems to be finding refuge in what might be called an "expanded reserved domain." Traditionally in France, the president’s "reserved domain" refers to their authority over foreign policy and defense, especially during periods of cohabitation (i.e., when the president and prime minister are from different parties). On both fronts, the international context is allowing Macron to reclaim a central role.

From Trump and Putin’s phone call to the Riyadh meetings, the rapid acceleration of the international agenda has put the president back at the center of global affairs. Seizing the moment, he hosted two high-level meetings in Paris, bringing together European leaders, as well as EU and NATO officials, to discuss the security of Ukraine and Europe. This is not just diplomatic maneuvering-it is a reaffirmation of his long-standing push for European strategic autonomy, a vision he has championed since his first term. It would be a stretch to accuse him of opportunism or insincerity on these issues. But can he establish himself as the "third man" in a landscape where Europe is being pushed to the sidelines? That's what he's trying to do by visiting Washington on the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine. One thing is clear: It was in Paris, not Rome, Berlin, or Warsaw, that these crucial summits took place. And that, in itself, is a statement-one that reinforces his leadership, particularly in contrast to Giorgia Meloni, who had hoped to position herself as the key intermediary between the Trump administration and the EU. Finally, the results of the German federal elections, which put Friedrich Merz’s CDU in the lead, could strengthen the deeply weakened Franco-German partnership. Merz’s statements about his commitment to building a genuine European defense align with Emmanuel Macron’s proposals-an ambition that may now have a real chance of materializing.

Beyond these crucial defense and international issues, under Emmanuel Macron, the "reserved domain" I just mentioned now seems to encompass innovation and digital affairs-where he made headlines at the AI Summit in Paris on February 11-12-as well as cultural and architectural initiatives (the Louvre announcements, the reopening of Notre-Dame) and sports (defending budgets the Bayrou government had attempted to cut).

Finally, as we just mentioned, his rapid response to the surprise US-Russia negotiations, bringing European leaders to Paris within forty-eight hours, wasn’t just diplomatic grandstanding-it was a necessary move to push Europe to take charge of its own security and Ukraine’s future.

Macron’s next big bet? A referendum. Yes, but on what? No one knows for sure today. In France, referenda often turn into plebiscites on the president rather than the issues at hand (it was indeed because of the "No" vote on his 1969 referendum that General de Gaulle resigned from the presidency). The last national referendum, in 2005, saw voters reject the EU Constitution, only for its key provisions to resurface in the 2007 Lisbon Treaty-a development that deepened public cynicism. To avoid such pitfalls, Macron is reportedly considering a series of referenda on various issues. According to an Ipsos poll, 80 percent of French voters support the idea. But what questions will be put to the vote? The legal scope of referenda is limited by Article 11 of the Constitution, making this a delicate gamble.

The Battle for 2027 Begins

With Macron unable to seek re-election, all eyes are on 2027. But first, the leadership battles within France’s historic governing parties-Les Républicains (LR) and the Socialist Party (PS)-must be settled.

LR will elect a new leader in May to replace Éric Ciotti, who has aligned himself with the National Rally. Meanwhile, the PS will hold a congress in June to appoint (or reappoint) its First Secretary. These parties are mere shadows of their former selves: Each now has around 45,000 members, in stark contrast to the 238,000 members LR had in 2015 or the 280,000 PS had in 2006. A bitter leadership fight risks further alienating voters.

Some optimists see a chance for a French-style social democracy to rise from the ashes, especially after the PS’s recent break with Mélenchon’s movement. But for that to happen, it must first reconnect with working-class voters-only 6 percent of blue-collar workers and 12 percent of employees backed the PS in the 2024 European elections, with most turning to the National Rally. The road ahead will be anything but easy.

Copyright image : Ludovic MARIN / AFP

France's President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech during a closing event for the first day of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit, at the Grand Palais, in Paris, on February 10, 2025.