[Decoding France] - Has the Race for 2027 Already Begun?

In recent weeks, one political development has eclipsed all others in France: the conviction of Marine Le Pen. This landmark decision has paradoxically both stalled and accelerated the race for the 2027 presidential election. Stalled-because the once clear path to power for the far-right National Rally (RN) has narrowed sharply. Accelerated-because it forces all political parties, especially the RN, to define their strategy, sharpen their message, and crucially, settle on a candidate. The race is on.

Meanwhile, the national political scene is stagnating. Prime Minister François Bayrou is struggling to advance reforms and must now brace for the high-stakes 2026 budget. The lingering Bétharram scandal hasn’t helped. President Emmanuel Macron, for his part, remains focused on international affairs-particularly Ukraine-while tensions between Paris and Algiers reach new highs. Let’s unpack the state of play.

Marine Le Pen on Trial: RN at a Crossroads

On March 31st, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a €100,000 fine, four years in prison (two of them suspended and convertible to house arrest with an electronic tag), and-perhaps most significantly-five years of ineligibility, with immediate effect. The ruling also fined the RN party €2 million.

Though Le Pen has appealed the decision and remains presumed innocent until a new decision is made, 61% of French people still say the ruling was justified given the charges.

Trumpism or Rebranding? RN’s Strategic Dilemma

The ruling triggered a wave of anti-establishment rhetoric from the RN. Gone was the party’s careful image of institutional respectability. In its place: dramatic denunciations of "judicial tyranny" and "political execution," echoing the language of Le Pen’s father. MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy accused a "clique of prosecutors" of launching a vendetta, while Le Pen said the system had "dropped the nuclear bomb."

This anti-judiciary tone clashed with the RN’s recent strategy of normalization or "dedemonization"-a key factor in its rising electoral success. Yet the storm of inflammatory rhetoric was short-lived. Once a court of appeal decision was confirmed for before the summer 2026, RN has gone quiet.Torn between two paths-Trump-style populism or continued "de-demonization"-the party seems unsure which direction to take.

Plan B(ardella): A Backup Leader, A Loyal Base

Le Pen initially insisted she would fight every legal avenue to remain a candidate in 2027. But she recently softened that stance, indicating she would step aside for Jordan Bardella if the Court of Appeal confirms her sentence next summer. "It would be irresponsible to endanger the party’s future for my judicial timeline," she told Le Figaro. Just days later, the main player himself confirmed it in an interview with Le Parisien: "If Marine Le Pen is prevented from running, I will stand as her candidate in 2027."

The succession would be formalized at a party congress in September 2026. For now, though, polls suggest her legal woes haven’t dented RN’s core support-Le Pen and Bardella still hover between 32% and 35% in first-round presidential polling. But the real test will be the second round: can a legally-compromised candidate build the broad coalition needed to win the second round?

Distrust in Justice: A System Under Strain

Beyond electoral math, Le Pen’s case taps into a deeper concern: France’s plummeting trust in its judiciary. According to Sciences Po’s 2025 political trust barometer, 68% of French people believe the judiciary is politicized; 77% feel it doesn’t treat defendants equally. Confidence in the courts is only 44%, compared to 67% in Germany and 63% in the Netherlands.

Three Blocs, Three Visions: France’s Political Triad in Motion

Le Pen’s conviction also crystallized France’s now entrenched tripolar political structure. On April 6th, three very different rallies revealed this new political geography:

• At Les Invalides, Le Pen loyalists gathered in a show of unity. It was the most cohesive bloc-but only drew 7,000-10,000 attendees, highlighting RN’s weak urban voter base in Paris.
• In Saint-Denis, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (now head of Renaissance, Macron’s party) headlined a charged rally. "You steal, you pay," he declared, calling the RN "the service provider of Trumpism" and offering a proto-campaign platform. It was a de facto candidacy launch under the banner of Macron’s centrist legacy.
• At Place de la République, the left attempted a counter-march. Only La France Insoumise and the Greens showed up; the Socialist Party was notably absent. The turnout was underwhelming.

Despite the rhetoric, all three blocs claimed to be defending democracy-but each defined it on their own terms. And the lukewarm attendance? A sign of fatigue. A recent IFOP survey found "radicalism" to be the most negatively viewed word among French respondents-worse than even "Islamism" or "wokeism." The public wants calm, not firebrands.

The Missing Players: PS and LR on the Sidelines

Two major parties were absent on April 6th: the Socialist Party and Les Républicains, both busy with internal congresses. LR is preparing for a leadership battle between Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau and regional president Laurent Wauquiez. Meanwhile, the current socialist secretary Olivier Faure could face an internal challenge to his position.

2025-2027: A Two-Year Political Freeze?

While campaigns simmer, governance stalls. Bayrou has struggled to advance any meaningful reforms. On April 15th, he convened a fiscal conference to highlight France’s "budgetary pathologies" ahead of the 2026 budget-a move meant to avoid a repeat of last year’s chaotic process. But reactions ranged from skeptical to hostile.

Public Accounts Minister Amélie de Montchalin offered some specifics-cutting spending by 6% over five years without resorting to "chainsaw" measures. Proposals included merging public operators, targeting sick-leave abuse, and reviewing procurement policies. Still, critics argue these measures fall short of the fiscal challenge ahead.

The President Abroad: International Focus, Domestic Drift

Ever the optimist, Macron seems to believe that he can rise as Bayrou stumbles. Some media reports suggest he’s contemplating an early dissolution of Parliament this autumn, hoping to leverage foreign policy clout into electoral gain. But with lukewarm approval ratings, this is a risky gamble. If a dissolution looks unlikely for now, the threat of a no confidence vote lingers. After Prime Minister François Bayrou spoke on energy sovereignty, the National Rally warned it could act if the government bypassed Parliament to approve its energy roadmap.

Not originally planned, the meeting was prompted by a Macron-Trump phone call. The aim? Ensure Europe is not sidelined in post-war planning and push for a joint "security assurance" framework with the UK.

At the same time, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu was in Washington to discuss a "lasting peace" in Ukraine. No press conference was held-an effort to avoid endorsing a possible ceasefire proposal misaligned with EU interests.

A Diplomatic Rift with Algeria: Old Wounds Reopened

The president’s international balancing act now includes a deepening crisis with Algeria. After a short-lived thaw, tensions reignited following the arrest in France of a consular agent implicated in the kidnapping of Algerian dissident Amir Boukhors.

Algeria responded by expelling 12 French diplomats. France returned the gesture. The tit-for-tat expulsions, unseen since Algerian independence in 1962, put however more pressure on Interior Minister Retailleau than on Macron himself.

Conclusion: A Nation Waiting for Momentum

France today feels suspended-buzzing with political drama, yet lacking in meaningful action. The road to 2027 is wide open, but paved with uncertainty. As the political class battles narratives and legal fates, the public waits, weary and wary, for clarity.

Copyright image : Daniel Perron / Hans Lucas via AFP