China Trends #22 - China’s Space Dream: No Limits, No End

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Introduction

By Mathieu Duchâtel

China’s Dream of Space Exploration with "No End" As global attention turned to DeepSeek, it was evident that China had yet to achieve its own "Sputnik moment" in the space sector. Some Chinese experts suggest that such a breakthrough could come with the Tianwen-3 mission (2028–2031), which aims to return rock samples from Mars, potentially placing China years ahead of the Euro-American Mars Sample Return mission. However, 2031 remains a distant milestone. Meanwhile, the U.S.–China technological rivalry intensifies, and writing by Chinese experts about space is obsessed with the United States, seeing it as the only benchmark deserving attention—the efforts of Europe, India, and Japan in this area are not even seen as worth mentioning. Looking at China’s space sector in early 2025, a clear pattern emerges: a methodical, long-term strategy shaped by military ambitions, aspirations for technological dominance, ubiquitous commercial considerations, and the familiar guiding hand of the state in industrial policy. This is a vision, as Xi Jinping has suggested, of space exploration with "no end."

Over the past quarter century, China has transformed from a minor player in the global space industry into a major power. Two decades ago, China’s space industry was still describing itself modestly as learning through trial and error. Today, Chinese analysts describe it with positive terms often applied to other industrial sectors: "big but not strong," "playing catch-up," sometimes "running with the pack," and, in certain areas, "leading the pack." The notion of "big but not strong" is drawn from the Made in China 2025 initiative—in which aerospace was listed as one of the ten strategic sectors). According to that vision, while Chinese companies benefit from market scale and production capacity, they must climb the innovation ladder to achieve global leadership—and the key word here is leadership. This applies not just to space but also to China's digital infrastructure, commercial ports, and high-tech industries such as advanced materials and new energy vehicles.

China's private space companies are key to understanding its broader ambitions. Unlike their Western counterparts, which often rely on government contracts, Chinese commercial space firms tend to focus on consumer-driven commercialization. They take more risks, embrace more flexible business models, and integrate satellite technology into everyday applications. Companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and BYD are incorporating satellite communication into smartphones and electric vehicles, reflecting China's push to merge space technology with consumer markets. A critical element of China's strategy is securing access to limited space resources, particularly the satellite frequency spectrum for communication. As companies like SpaceX's Starlink claim more of the non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) spectrum, Chinese firms are aggressively pursuing their own allocations.

Beyond its economic ambitions, China's space exploration efforts serve as both a showcase of its technological advancements and a reflection of its broader geopolitical aspirations. Under Xi Jinping's leadership, China has achieved major milestones, including the Chang'e-5 lunar mission, the completion of the Tiangong space station, and the Tianwen missions to Mars. These successes illustrate China’s growing autonomy in space and its determination to rival the United States as a global space leader.

For Beijing, space exploration is deeply tied to national pride and serves as one of many engines for the Communist Party to cultivate its political legitimacy—as is true of any large-scale achievement capable of inspiring collective enthusiasm and pride in Chinese society. The government portrays these successes as part of China's "great rejuvenation," reinforcing its image as a technologically advanced power. While a leading Chinese official may describe the space program as "a magnificent poem of mankind from the earth to the vast universe," it is also a political statement, showcasing China's ability to compete at the highest levels of innovation.

However, China’s space ambitions extend beyond prestige—they are, perhaps more importantly, central to its military strategy and evolving views on the nature of warfare and the military balance. In April 2024, China undertook a major reorganization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), dissolving the Strategic Support Force (SSF), which was established as part of Xi Jinping's military reforms in 2016. As a replacement, three new entities were created under the direct command of the Central Military Commission: the Military Aerospace Force (ASF), the Cyberspace Force, and the Information Support Force.

Alongside its focus on military power, space is also integrated into China's foreign policy. While competition with the United States remains the center of gravity of the program, "China is willing to work with all nations to explore the mysteries of the universe, promote the peaceful use of outer space, and advance space technology for the benefit of all humanity," according to Xi Jinping. The International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), developed in partnership with Russia, highlights China's ambition to lead an alternative global space alliance. While the war in Ukraine has complicated Russia's involvement, China continues to build partnerships through initiatives such as the Tiangong space station and international satellite programs. So far, Venezuela (providing access to ground stations), South Africa, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Belarus, Egypt, Thailand, Nicaragua, Serbia, Kazakhstan, and Senegal have joined the ILRS. Argentina, which hosts a Chinese deep-space station in Patagonia, is also a key node in this Chinese international strategy.

Both the facts and writings by Chinese experts, therefore, demonstrate how Beijing's space program now reflects a broader pattern of its industrial development: methodical, state-guided, and aimed at achieving long-term strategic advantages by eyeing scale and cost reduction. China may not have yet achieved a defining "Sputnik moment," but it is certainly working hard to create the conditions for a strategic breakthrough. 

Copyright Image : ADEK BERRY / AFP

The introduction article to this edition of China Trends by Mathieu Duchâtel was also published by The Diplomat.

By Blaine Curcio

Chinese commercial space companies are closely monitoring successful models, both domestically and internationally, quickly adapting to incorporate proven technologies. Inspired by the achievements of SpaceX and Starlink, these private companies aim to break free from the constraints of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), striving to foster innovation, consumer-driven growth, and agile, iterative processes—embracing fast failure when necessary. Drawing from corporate insights and academic perspectives, Blaine Curcio, founder of Hong Kong-based Orbital Gateway Consulting, emphasizes the growing strategic importance of private players alongside government entities. Ultimately, he highlights the rise of the Chinese private sector as a key lens through which the nation's broader space ambitions can be observed and assessed.

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By Pierre Pinhas and Raphaël Tavanti-Geuzimian

China's remarkable achievements in low-Earth orbit, on the Moon, and on Mars carry deep symbolic weight, directly projecting the success of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to domestic and international audiences. Through a thorough analysis of expert commentaries, Pierre Pinhas and Raphaël Tavanti-Geuzimian, from Institut Montaigne, illustrate how Beijing is steadily positioning itself as a dominant space power. While space exploration remains a relatively peaceful arena, the inevitable comparison with U.S. policies and initiatives looms large. Chinese discourse often frames its efforts within this comparative context, especially as the geopolitical rivalry between the two nations enters a new phase.

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By Jyh-Shyang Sheu

The dual-use nature of space technology is an opportunity for authoritarian regimes to transform space into a potential arena for gray-zone activities. Over time, China has increasingly recognized space as a critical area for modernizing the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and countering the advanced capabilities of its adversaries. Through a historical lens, Jyh-Shyang Sheu, Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, highlights the growing significance of space in China’s military strategy and projection ambitions. On the battlefield, the strategic value of communication satellites and other space assets has become a prominent topic within Chinese defense discussions. While space could serve as the theater for a "first strike" in an armed conflict, in times of peace, it is becoming increasingly probable that it will host more hybrid operations.

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