Semiconductors: European Views on Four 2029 Tech Transfer Regime Scenarios

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Research Analyst for Economic Security and Technology at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)

Joris Teer is the Research Analyst leading the portfolio on Economic Security and Technology at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS). On behalf of EUISS, he is a Senior Advisor to the Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO).

This policy paper was published as part of the Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO), an 18-month project designed to contribute to the shaping of a European foreign policy on semiconductors. The project is coordinated by Institut Montaigne with the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS, Bratislava), the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS, Brussels), and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS, Paris and Brussels), and co-funded by the European Union.

The Wassenaar Arrangement, the multilateral framework that has shaped technology transfer controls for nearly three decades, is not fit for a world of great power competition. A proliferation of technology transfer restrictions - largely driven by Washington, but increasingly also by Beijing - goes far beyond Wassenaar’s lists and practices. These unilateral measures, which strongly affect Europe’s semiconductor sector, are responses to waves of disruptive innovation, US-China rivalry, and the geopolitical shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Where does this all end? What regimes will regulate technology transfers in the future? With President Trump back in office, Europe’s semiconductor ecosystem faces even more profound uncertainty. Meanwhile, President Xi expands China’s state support and other policies to move semiconductor production within its borders.

This first CHIPDIPLO policy paper seeks to provide strategic clarity at a pivotal moment. The paper aims to support European decision-makers in developing realistic and effective technology transfer regimes that serve Europe’s interests and the competitiveness of its semiconductor ecosystem. Structured around four scenarios looking ahead to 2029, it offers detailed insight into the preferences and expectations of key actors across Europe’s semiconductor industry and research technology organizations (RTOs). Based on these, Europeans can develop strategies to protect their tech interests in this post-Wassenaar world.

Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG Connect). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

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Mars 2025

Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative

La Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO) est un projet de 18 mois piloté par l’Institut Montaigne et co-financé par la Commission européenne. Il vise à renforcer la stratégie européenne en matière de semi-conducteurs face aux tensions géopolitiques. Ses objectifs : anticiper les risques industriels, coordonner les politiques des États membres et développer des partenariats internationaux. Le consortium associe experts, industriels et chercheurs pour analyser les défis et fournir des recommandations à l’UE. CHIPDIPLO soutient l’EU Chips Act et promeut l’attractivité de l’Europe en matière d’innovation et d’investissements.

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