[Scenarios] NATO and the Russian Threat: The Case of the Baltic States

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Special Advisor and Resident Senior Fellow - Geopolitics and Diplomacy

Michel Duclos is Special Advisor and Resident Senior Fellow, Geopolitics and Diplomacy.

The numerous drone incursions and violations of several European countries’ airspace by Russia throughout 2025, accompanied by a series of cyberattacks, have raised fears of a growing Russian threat against European nations in the years to come-regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

This threat must be understood in a dual context: on the one hand, a potential intensification of Russian military pressure (with its war economy and build-up of military capacity) and on the other hand, a gradual disengagement by the United States from European security.

From this perspective, we hypothesize that in the coming years, Russia may seek to test the strength of NATO’s Article 5 and the resilience of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture through an armed attack targeting the Baltic states-which are members of both NATO and the European Union.

We consider a scenario of progressive escalation in which Russia first employs hybrid tactics before resorting to conventional means. At this stage of the crisis, we identify three potential response trajectories from NATO and the EU, depending on whether Article 5 is invoked or not.

This note draws on a broad corpus of interviews conducted with politicians, high officials, and military officials from the Baltic states, as well as from both eastern and western Europe. It offers avenues for reflection to help guide Europe’s choices on matters of defense and security.

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