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[Scenarios] - China 2035: The Chances of Success

Authors

François Godement

François Godement

Special Advisor and Resident Senior Fellow - U.S. and Asia

François Godement is Institut Montaigne’s Special Advisor and Resident Senior Fellow – Asia and America. He was also a Nonresident Senior Fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. and, until the summer of 2024, an external consultant for the Policy Planning Staff of the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs. He was the Director of ECFR’s Asia & China Program and a Senior Policy Fellow before leaving in December 2018.

Pierre Pinhas

Project Officer - Asia Program

Pierre Pinhas joined Institut Montaigne in February 2023 as a Project Officer within the Asia program. He is among others in charge of the quarterly publication China Trends, which seeks to understand China on the basis of Chinese sources.

In a sense, predictability has been the hallmark of Xi Jinping's era, thanks to a highly centralized power structure and relentless surveillance -but even so, China continues to keep the world on edge. In pursuit of the goal of achieving "socialist modernization" by 2035, China is prioritizing new technologies, striving to reach self-sufficiency, and making national security an unyielding focus. Nevertheless, the contradictions are evident-for all that China appears to demonstrate unstoppable power. It is also grappling with a demographic decline, excessive savings, and the stifling effects of Xi’s recentralization.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s "reunification" remains central to China’s grand vision, underscoring Beijing’s ambition to reshape global power dynamics. In terms of trade, China’s zero-sum approach-which takes more from global growth than it contributes to it-is leading to heightened tensions with international partners who are wary of its rise.

Four possible scenarios for China’s future loom on the horizon. In each of these scenarios, the actions of China’s partners and competitors matter as much to its future as China’s own actions will affect the world. Unless other countries can show genuine unity in creating alternatives and deterrents, China’s trajectory may well have redefined the global landscape by 2035.

Scenario n°1: A triumphant and largely prevailing China with a minimal foreign presence, able to coerce its partners and overshadow democratic systems,
Scenario n°2: Pushbacks without much coordination from partners, creating more irritants than genuinely effective barriers to Beijing’s ascent, yet with a somewhat preserved global geopolitical balance,
Scenario n°3: A coordinated global response, with alliances ranging from the transatlantic sphere to the middle and emerging powers, challenging China’s economic and strategic choices,
Scenario n°4: A major conflict, most likely over Taiwan, spiraling into a worldwide crisis that no one can fully contain. While all participants in the global economy would be impacted, a defeat for the People’s Republic of China would create major regime uncertainty.

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