Autonomy or Indispensability? Identifying the EU’s Semiconductor Lodestar | Institut Montaigne

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Authors

Joris Teer

Research Analyst for Economic Security and Technology at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)

Joris Teer is the Research Analyst leading the portfolio on Economic Security and Technology at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS). On behalf of EUISS, he is a Senior Advisor to the Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO).

Riccardo Bosticco

Riccardo Bosticco

Joris Teer is the Research Analyst leading the portfolio on Economic Security and Technology at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS). On behalf of EUISS, he is a Senior Advisor to the Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO).

Antonio Calcara

Antonio Calcara

Professor at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) and the head of the Geopolitics and Technology programme at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS)

Antonio Calcara is a professor at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) and the head of the Geopolitics and Technology programme at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS). He holds a PhD in Political Science from LUISS University in Rome and has previously held academic positions at the University of Antwerp, LUISS University, and Sciences Po Paris.

The hyper-specialized division of labor underpinning the global semiconductor value chain has produced acute vulnerabilities. China increasingly weaponizes supply chains against Europe, while President Trump threatens Nvidia’s AI chips too. The risk of military conflict in East Asia, for example over Taiwan or on the Korean Peninsula, has structurally increased as well. These developments threaten Europe’s economic and national security.

In this new geopolitical era, Europe’s semiconductor strategy needs to pick a lodestar: autonomy or indispensability. Full autonomy means seeking resilience through rebuilding the entire value chain in Europe, at immense cost. Indispensability means pursuing leverage by consolidating control over strategic choke points that others rely on. The question is which end goal and policies will actually strengthen security of supply of semiconductors to Europe and EU industry and research technology organization competitiveness.

This second CHIPDIPLO policy paper draws on a structured consultation with fifty industry leaders, policymakers, and think tank experts who examined four distinct 2035 backcasting scenarios. Each captures a radically different outlook for European and global semiconductor ecosystems.

The conclusion is unequivocal. Full autonomy is neither realistic nor desirable. Indispensability without any autonomy leaves Europe unprotected from geopolitical fortuna. Europe’s only viable strategy lies in Allied Autonomy, European Indispensability: leveraging Europe’s core strengths, embedding them within trusted partnerships, and securing durable influence by expanding its choke points. To operationalize this strategy, the paper advances six sets of concrete policy recommendations, grounded in the workshop’s collective assessment.

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Note
(70 pages)

Semiconductors: European Views on Four 2029 Tech Transfer Regime Scenarios

Amid US-China rivalry and Russia’s war, Europe’s semiconductor sector faces uncertainty beyond Wassenaar. CHIPDIPLO outlines four scenarios to 2029, guiding EU strategies for tech transfer and competitiveness.

Read the Policy Paper

<p><strong>Semiconductors: European Views on Four 2029 Tech Transfer Regime Scenarios</strong></p>

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