The EU Semiconductor Geopolitical Risk Survey: Outlook for 2026–2031

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Authors

Research Analyst for Economic Security and Technology at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)

Joris Teer is the Research Analyst leading the portfolio on Economic Security and Technology at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS). On behalf of EUISS, he is a Senior Advisor to the Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO).

Pierre Sel

Associate Researcher - Asia Programme

Pierre Sel is associate researcher with Institut Montaigne’s Asia Programme and a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Vienna

This policy paper was published as part of the Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO), an 18-month project designed to contribute to the shaping of a European foreign policy on semiconductors. The project is coordinated by Institut Montaigne with the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS, Bratislava), the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS, Brussels), and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS, Paris and Brussels), and co-funded by the European Union.

Since the chip shortage of 2020 to 2022, policymakers, industry representatives, and think-tank experts have conducted extensive research on the dangers of semiconductor supply disruptions-and formulated strategies for how to deal with them. Without access to chips, Europe cannot maintain its medical, defense, or other critical industries. Moreover, advances in semiconductor technologies can unlock innovations for both commercial and defense-related industries.

The EU Semiconductor Geopolitical Risk Survey sets out to sketch the overall semiconductor "risk landscape" of the next five years (until late 2031) by pooling insights from governments, the semiconductor ecosystem, and experts at think tanks. The 55 survey respondents-predominantly industry and RTO-representatives-paint a bleak picture of Europe’s future when it comes to semiconductors. The most severe threats are countries curtailing the supply of key manufacturing inputs to the EU and its partners through export controls, and a military conflict over Taiwan.

To better anticipate these challenges, semiconductor ecosystem representatives and policymakers, equipped with a clearer view of the overall threats through this survey, should engage in a monthly risk-monitoring exercise, as well as medium-term risk projections. Breaking down silos within Europe’s semiconductor ecosystem and between industry and policymakers through war-gaming and other crisis stress tests is also essential to make risk-mitigation a greater success.

Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG Connect). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

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March 2025

Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative

The Chips Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO) is an 18-month project led by the Institut Montaigne and co-funded by the European Commission. It aims to strengthen Europe's semiconductor strategy in the face of geopolitical tensions. Its objectives are to anticipate industrial risks, coordinate member states' policies and develop international partnerships. The consortium brings together experts, industrialists and researchers to analyze the challenges and provide recommendations to the EU. CHIPDIPLO supports the EU Chips Act and promotes Europe's attractiveness for innovation and investment.

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