Off-Year Elections One Year After Trump: American Voters Remain the Checks and the Balances

Resounding Victories for Democratic Candidates

On November 4, 2025, one year after the decisive reelection of Donald Trump, millions of Americans had their first opportunity to head to the polls and cast their votes for governors’ and down-ballot races. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger defeated her Republican rival by a margin unseen in modern history to become the first female governor of that state. Mikie Sherrill, New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate, won to replace an outgoing Democratic governor, delivering the state three times in a row to the same party for the first time since 1961. In New York City, self-proclaimed "Democratic Socialist," Zohran Mamdani, rose from obscurity just one year ago to become the city’s first Muslim mayor and its youngest mayor in a century. Democrats also won mayoral races in Cincinnati, Ohio; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Detroit, Michigan, where Mary Sheffield became that city’s first female mayor. Voters across the country gave Democrats large victories in statehouses (Virginia) and State Supreme Courts (Pennsylvania), while California voters overwhelmingly approved the referendum to redraw Congressional districts mid-decade and thereby secure five additional Democratic House seats in next year’s midterm elections.

What Do Tuesday’s results Tell Us?

Americans more generally are unsatisfied with Trump’s stewardship of the country, and Democratic candidates who made Tuesday’s races about Trump fared well. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger focused on the disastrous fallout for her state’s voters from the ongoing federal government shutdown and the mass firing of federal workers at Trump’s behest. In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill opposed a local transportation project publicly supported by Trump. And Trump’s push for mid-decade redistricting efforts to benefit Republicans mobilized California voters to massively support democratic Governor Gavin Newsom’s referendum to redistrict there.

And voters seem to be more focused on their economic health than so-called culture war issues. In Virginia, a state where more than half of voters believe that trans rights have gone too far and where the Republican candidate made anti-trans rhetoric central to her campaign, voters still preferred the Democrat.

Voter discontent echoed national sentiment more largely. New polls place Trump’s approval rating at a mere 37% - only one point higher than his all-time low of 36%, measured near the end of his first term. Almost 3 out of 4 Americans say the US economy is in bad shape, and more than 60% say that Trump has worsened the situation. The same number believe that Trump has gone too far in his use of executive authority, and almost as many (56%) believe he hurts the US’ standing in the world. Similarly, 57% of Americans think his immigration policy has gone too far. Only slightly more than a quarter of Americans believe that the threat to US democracy is a top concern. In light of these figures, it would seem that voters - who largely chose Trump for his perceived credibility on economic issues - express frustration for promised results they have yet to see. And at this stage, they do not seem to share the president’s belief that voters conferred onto him a sweeping mandate in November 2024.

Paths Forward for Democrats and Republicans

Democrats certainly feel a boost of momentum following Tuesday’s elections, particularly after a year in which they have struggled to exist politically as a true opposition force to Trump and his Republican party. Voter perception of the Democrats are at near-historical lows and yet voters proved willing to turnout massively in an off-year to reject Trump’s agenda and propel Democrats into office. And Republicans clearly paid a price for their fealty to a highly unpopular President Trump. But there are key takeaways from Tuesday for each party.

- Democrats drew on the catalyzing force of Trump to craft their electoral arguments and then to turn out unsatisfied voters. But the absence of Trump on the ballot also decreased enthusiasm and turnout among Republicans. This enthusiasm gap very clearly gave Democratic candidates an advantage in 2025, and it may serve the same purpose in 2026 (depending upon the national and foreign policy issues facing the country next year). But Democrats will need to embody more than the alternative to Trump in 2028 when he will not be eligible to run again. They will need to win voters based on what they actively propose in terms of vision, strategy, and policy. Similarly, Republicans will need to elevate a figure capable of rallying the party and maintaining voter enthusiasm and engagement in the absence of the mercurial yet charismatic Trump. Vice President JD Vance has begun to cultivate his profile as the heir apparent to Trump and the future of conservatism in America.

- Tuesday’s elections showed that local realities matter more to Democratic voters at this point than a single, unified national ideology. As Democrats build a case to American voters for the midterm elections, it would seem that voters prefer candidates who focus with precision on issues closest to them, particularly the economy. Democrats across the country - and the Independents they try to bring on board - are not a monolith, and their values and priorities call for a differentiated approach. Locally adapted vision and solutions would seem to resonate deeply with voters and may be a winning strategy for midterm electoral victories.

Voters for Andrew Cuomo, a Democratic heavyweight who ran against Mamdani as an independent and garnered the endorsement of Trump, tended to be older, non-holders of a university degree, and native New Yorkers. Independent voters were split between Mamdani and Cuomo. And Mamdani voters sought change while Cuomo voters wanted experience. Even in a liberal stronghold like New York, internal Democratic fault lines exist: generational divides, educational fractures, progressive versus centrist politics. These are questions with which Democrats nationally are grappling and the answers to which may be the foundation on which the left builds its base for the 2028 presidential contest. The 2026 midterm elections will certainly help litigate these questions as voters will have yet another opportunity - this time on a national stage - to express their preferences for the ideas and platforms they deem most suited to their aspirations.

And Republicans, too, may find useful takeaways from the 2025 elections:

- There is a pain point for support of Donald Trump’s political agenda. Public discontent over the Trump presidency is compounding with time. President Trump has left the grace period, and voters increasingly attribute the country’s health (particularly economic) to the policies of the president. And while Republican voters’ support for the president remains generally stable (even if it has shown signs of weakening at the margins), those same voters do not turn out to support down-ballot Republicans. If Trump is a repellant for Democratic voters, he is increasingly so for Independent voters on whom Republicans will need to rely to push their candidates to victory.

- Voters expect economic results, and an important window may close little by little. If Republicans hope to make a compelling case to voters in the 2026 midterm elections, voters seem more susceptible to economic arguments than cultural, or "woke," issues. As the shutdown wears on and creates hardship for millions of Americans (cf. 42 million Americans whose food subsidies are threatened and hundreds of thousands of federal workers across the country who go unpaid), Americans face other forms of economic hardship. They struggle with rising costs of housing and food, slow income growth, and medical debt while fears of recession rise. As the symbolic holiday season (Thanksgiving and Christmas) arrives, Americans are particularly sensitive to their economic outlook.

Copyright image : ALEX WONG / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP
Abigail Spanberger, newly elected Governor of Virginia, on 4 November 2025 in Richmond.