What a Center-Left Victory Means for Italian Politics

In Turin, for example, only 42.1% of voters showed up for the second round (6 points lower than in the first round). In Rome, voter turnout was only 40.6%, 8.5 points lower than in the first round. Nevertheless, the center-Left consolidated itself in central Italy, traditionally its area of strength, and progressed in the South (27 municipalities won, 10 more than in 2016). Yet, it stagnated in the North. The PD needs to come up with an attractive program for future elections and consolidate its unifying strategy.

These elections point towards a center-Left vs. center-Right, form of bipolarism underway, crushing the 5-Star Movement which had been disrupting the political party system since 2003. The Movement is now divided over what strategy to adopt. Should it uphold the PD alliance, at the risk of being overpowered by it, or should it keep its autonomy at the risk of being marginalized?

But there is another question. A part of the electorate does not recognize itself in this bipolarism and prefers not to vote. What will these voters choose to do in the Italian general elections scheduled for 2023? The PD wants to bring together a large number of people, from the 5-Star Movement to small centrist groups. However, a number of centrist representatives do not intend to give in to the siren calls of PD leader Enrico Letta and will seek to form a true centrist pole. These representatives include former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and European deputy Carlo Calenda, who headed a "civic" list in Rome and who obtained more than 19% of the vote in the first round. The outcome of the next general election, at the end of the legislature of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, is still very much uncertain. There will be other issues at stake for this election and the electoral law will not be the same. As a result, surprises are to be expected, especially since the center-Right is stronger in smaller cities and provinces.

Precisely, where do the center right Forza Italia, the Lega Nord of Matteo Salvini and Giorgio Meloni stand after these election results?

The center-Right unquestionably suffered a heavy defeat, although the results should be interpreted with caution. In the north of the country for instance, they won 26 municipalities with more than 15,000 residents (3 more than in the previous election), compared with 12 for the center-Left. They can also boast of winning Trieste. But the stinging failure of the candidate chosen by the center-Right, and especially by Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d'Italia who received less than 40% of the vote in the second round, is symbolic. Truth is, the center-Right suffers from a lack of candidates for this type of election. They are often weak and less prepared to handle the responsibility of the position they seek. They are also deeply divided on many issues.

Being a "party of government and a party of struggle", as they say in Italy, can be profitable. Yet, at the moment, this penalizes the League. Matteo Salvini himself has lost some of his popularity. 

Fratelli d'Italia is deploying a completely different strategy, since it is in opposition. They performed poorly in these elections, but the voting intentions for the next elections project them to be the major party. They nonetheless still have a credibility problem, which was seen when Giorgia Meloni made highly ambiguous remarks after a violent demonstration in Rome in which a fascist group attacked the CGIL headquarters, Italy's main trade union confederation. As someone who began her political career in a fascist movement before becoming a reactionary, she claims no nostalgia for fascism. Yet, she does not distance herself with those who still claim to be fascists, some of whom are members of her own party.

Finally, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia has been highly reduced despite his candidate’s victory in Trieste and at the head of the Calabria region. Il Cavaliere seeks to be the moderate representative of the center-Right coalition. But the coalition appears very heterogeneous, since it includes the Lega on the one hand, and Fratelli d'Italia on the other, both clearly populist. However, according to opinion polls before this election tour, the center-Right had 44% to 47% of voting intentions. All options remain possible. 

In the aftermath of the elections, what does the future hold for Mario Draghi, both for him personally and his government? 

I believe that the government's position has been strengthened after these elections. Draghi has the support of the center-Left and of the population who, according to the polls, want to prioritize health, employment and security. This in itself likely enabled him to win his cities. Moreover, these newly elected mayors could relay the management of Italy’s recovery plan at the local level. The center-Right, who was initially hoping for early elections if Draghi became president early next year, may be a little more cautious. It will probably need more time to agree on its strategy and on its program. The 5-Star Movement wants to avoid early elections, as many of its parliament members and senators could be sent home should that be the case. Mario Draghi can therefore draw up his budget bill with a certain degree of serenity, continue to strengthen his position in Europe and, as far as the French are concerned, sign the Quirinal Treaty with Emmanuel Macron, to seal the Franco-Italian friendship. 

Who will be the future President of the Italian Republic? That’s the million-dollar question. Several scenarios exist. One is that Sergio Mattarella, despite much denying, exceptionally extends his term of office by one year, which would allow Mario Draghi to succeed him just before the elections to the Chambers. Another is that Mario Draghi becomes President of the Republic at the beginning of next year, and the Parliament manages to find a President of the Council to lead the government for a year. The third case scenario is that the new President dissolves the chambers. Either way, whatever the outcome of the elections, the President appears more than ever to be the guarantor of Italy's EU commitments, and above all, of the success of the stimulus package. This rings true especially if the center-Right wins, despite legitimate questions about its pro-Europeanism, and more generally, about the measures it might take on various issues, including immigration. History shows that the President can have real power. Finally, a fourth and final scenario is that Mario Draghi withdraws his presidential candidacy, even though there is a consensus that he should hold this office. In this scenario, another candidate emerges, and the legislature comes to an end. Super Mario's mission would end in 2023. Temporarily.

Copyright: ANDREAS SOLARO / AFP