Is It 1981 All Over Again?

The thought of a Le Pen victory also conjures up memories of Mitterrand’s early presidency, when he aimed to use fiscal and monetary policy in order to achieve socialisme à la française. This did not go well for long. Similarly, Le Pen’s economic program would put her on a collision course with Brussels, Frankfurt and capital markets. Le Pen could not direct monetary policy and devalue the Franc as Mitterand did, but her fiscal policy plans are enough of a concern on their own.

Nonetheless, there are equally six important limits to the 1981 analogy.

First, even in 1974, Mitterrand was very close to winning against Giscard. In the second round, Mitterrand lost with only 49.2% of the vote. By contrast, Le Pen lost with 34% of the vote in 2017. The far-right Le Pen thus has much more ground to make than the left-leaning Mitterrand did at the time. 

Second, Mitterrand’s 1981 election came as a surprise to most. Even after the first round, only 21% of the public expected Mitterrand to win, against nearly 57% who expected Giscard to be re-elected.  It is now clear that commentators, including the two authors, have largely underestimated Le Pen’s chances of winning a run-off election. This time, however, the French appear to be rapidly realizing the gravity of the new situation. In a poll from April 8, 57% say the presidential race is too close to call.

Fourth, Giscard was an economic liberal, social progressive and pro-European with a reputation for arrogance. Sound familiar? Sure, but while Macron would certainly not win France’s nomination for the Eurovision song contest, his popularity ratings are quite good. The aristocrat Giscard was in a distant sphere of his own, especially when it came to engaging with the public. Macron certainly thinks no less highly of himself, but he manages to listen to and engage with people at times, as was highlighted by the Grand Débat during the Yellow Vest protests.

Moreover, Giscard had a huge credibility problem due to l’affaire des diamonds. Two years before the 1981 campaign, media reported that Giscard had been gifted diamonds by the Central African Republic dictator Jean-Bédel Bokassa. This event led many citizens to believe that Giscard was corrupt. Today, Macron is struggling with what some have called "McKinseyGate", a debate about the alleged excessive use of consultancies by Macron’s government.

However, whatever the merits of "McKinseyGate", it is certainly not as juicy of a story as l’affaire des diamonds. Socialist 1981 campaign posters depicted Giscard with flashy diamonds in his eyes. Giscard campaigned for re-election with the lowest popularity ratings of his entire term. By contrast, Macron’s approval ratings are near the highest level they have ever been, and above those of his immediate predecessors at the end of their mandates. Perhaps more importantly, Macron is passionately hated by a part of France’s population. The Yellow Vest protests even featured guillotines to decapitate Macron puppets. Yet, his disapproval ratings remain better than those of Le Pen.

Fifth, in contrast to Giscard, Macron has a positive economic record to defend. Unemployment has dropped from 9.5% to 7.4% in the last five years. On the other hand, during Giscard’s 1974 to 1981 term, unemployment rose from 2% to 6%.

What about inflation? Inflation rates were in the double-digit territory for much of Giscard’s term, rising particularly steeply after the second oil shock in 1979 that was sparked by the Iranian revolution. History is seeming to repeat itself. Today, it is another external geopolitical crisis - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - that is fueling inflation. However, France’s inflation was at 5.1% in March, which is nothing to the 13% Giscard was confronting during his campaign for reelection.

Sixth, today’s political scene is different,and more complex. After his presidential win, Mitterrand allied himself with the Communist Party. This allowed him to gain a majority in parliament in June 1981, and ultimately neutralize the rival party to his left. Le Pen would have no obvious majority in the ensuing parliamentary elections, although the six weeks separating the two votes would almost certainly revamp the French political scene. 

Overall, the 1981 election offers many parallels to today, but also some important differences. On balance, the odds seem to be in Macron’s favor. But the French have been surprised once before. In 1941, the literary critic Emil Cioran wrote,"France can still unleash one last revolution. Before France has definitively exhausted its potential for social renewal, la populace will triumph, and have its big moment." Romanian-born Cioran was adored by the French because he was even more pessimistic than the French themselves. Let’s hope it stays that way.

Copyright: Eric Feferberg, Joël SAGET / AFP