European Council: A Great Deal of Politics and Little Precision

The Council of 28 and 29 June was to be the "mother of all summits". On the agenda were numerous conflicting issues for the 28 Member States: migration, the European budget, defense and security, Brexit or the Eurozone.
 
The arrival in power in Italy of a coalition government between the Five Star Movement and the League, the German political crisis and the risk of a split between the CDU and the CSU, finally forced Member States to urgently seek solutions to the migration issue, leaving aside the discussion on the Eurozone, so long awaited by France.
 
It took until 4:35am on Friday morning for the Heads of State and Government to reach an agreement. A sign - no doubt - that it does not completely meet everyone's expectations: for the first time since Emmanuel Macron’s election, the French President and the Chancellor decided not to organize a joint press conference at the end of the summit.
 
High in drama, but low in concrete decisions, is this European Council the symptom of a European Union (EU) incapable of overcoming its divisions? Or rather that of a new European political landscape, dominated by the parties and governments most opposed to immigration?
 
It seems that three lessons can be drawn from this new European episode.

Migration issues continue to divide Europeans

It was probably not a Council like any other for Angela Merkel. About 10 days earlier, German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer announced that he would close the country's borders to asylum seekers who are already registered in another EU Member State if the Chancellor failed to reach an agreement on migration with her European partners by the end of the month. In response to this ultimatum, Berlin had organized an exceptional European mini-summit a few days before the Council, with the aim of reconciling different countries’ viewpoints. 
 
Among the main solutions envisaged by the Council on 28 June, the agreement mentions the possible creation of "regional disembarkation platforms, in close cooperation with relevant third countries as well as UNHCR and IOM". The western Maghreb countries, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, have already announced that they do not wish to host such centers. Pushed by Italy, this solution aims to limit arrivals on EU territory.
 
Concerning secondary movements, i.e. the movement of migrants on European territory, the text refers to "controlled centers set up in Member States, only on a voluntary basis". So far, no country has expressed the wish to host such centers, and Emmanuel Macron has indicated that France is not a volunteer. A sign that the Council's proposal still lacks precision, Nathalie Loiseau, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, declared at the end of the Council that "(...) these will not be closed centers, but centers from which migrants will not be able to leave".
 
Finally, the Council decided to postpone the thorny issue of the reform of the Dublin Regulation. This provides in particular that the country of "first entry", i.e. the Member State to which the asylum seeker has arrived, is responsible for examining this application, thus leaving the countries at the EU's external borders - and in particular Italy - in a situation of overload compared to other Member States. The text of the agreement refers to a reform of the regulation to be based on "a balance between responsibility and solidarity". Yet we do not yet know how this principle will be compatible with the positions of countries such as Hungary and Poland, which are fiercely opposed to any form of distribution of asylum seekers within the EU.

The offensive method of the new Italian government seems to be working

Taking advantage of the fact that the Chancellor absolutely needed an agreement to respond to the ultimatum of her Interior Minister, the Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte - for whom it was the first European Council - indicated at the beginning of the meeting that he would refuse to sign the final agreement, for lack of a solution to the migration issue. Confronted for several years to the arrival of a large number of migrants from the Libyan coast, Italy criticizes its European partners for their lack of solidarity and wishes not to have to bear alone the management of asylum seekers arriving on its territory.
 
Thus, the first paragraph of the agreement states that, with regard to "European migration policy": "This is a challenge not only for a single Member State, but for Europe as a whole". Although only rhetorical, this passage recalls the principle of solidarity that must prevail between European Member States, and could herald a possible reform of the "first entry" rule provided for by Dublin.
 
The creation of "controlled centers" on European territory also goes in this direction. As Emmanuel Macron recalled at the end of the Council: "These centers have an interest in helping the countries of first entry to establish, with funding, a European organization, the reception of migrants, the examination of files and the return to their country of origin of those who are not granted asylum protection".
 
The text of the agreement also provides that "the EU will continue to stand by Italy and other frontline Member States in this respect", asserts that the Union will in particular support the Libyan Coastguard and recalls that "all vessels operating in the Mediterranean must respect the applicable laws and not obstruct the operations of the Libyan Coastguard.”
 
So many stipulations that go - whether explicitly or not - in the direction of the requests made by Rome since the arrival in power of its new government, thus allowing the new Italian Prime Minister to declare that he has won his case for "80%" of his requests. Following the decision by Italian Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini to close the country's ports to NGO ships assisting migrants at sea, and Giuseppe Conte’s threat during the European Council to block any agreement, the relative victory achieved by Rome at this meeting could encourage the Italian government in its offensive strategy and foreshadows tough discussions on the Dublin reform.

The window of opportunity for a major reform of the Eurozone is gradually closing

It had almost been a year since the Eurogroup summit was expected: in the end, its only outcome will have been an agreement of 220 words. As the cornerstone of the project to reform the Union defended by Emmanuel Macron since his presidential campaign, the reform of the Eurozonewas to be this European Council’s main goal. The 19 Member States that have adopted the single currency have finally decided to postpone their discussion until next December.
 
In the German city of Meseberg on 19 June, France and Germany managed to sign a joint roadmap, hoping to get their European partners to accept it. It included the strengthening of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), several measures to complete the Banking Union, and the creation of a Eurozone budget, which is the main point of contention between Paris and Rome since the sovereign debt crisis in 2010 and 2011. While on this last point the Franco-German declaration may lack precision regarding the size of this budget and the various functions it could serve, France wished to endorse the simple concept of the "Eurozone budget" on the occasion of this Eurogroup summit.
 
However, the text of the declaration will not include this term. It will simply refer to "national contributions, including those submitted by France and Germany" and the letter sent by the President of the Eurogroup, Mario Centeno of Portugal, to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk of Poland, in which the idea of a budget for the area is mentioned.
 
Should we understand this decision to postpone as the mere result of the participants’ lack of time or of "political capital", following the tough negotiations concerning migration policy? In any case, the Franco-German declaration of 19 June does not seem to have had the knock-on effect expected by the two capitals. Just a few days after the Meseberg Summit, the Netherlands and 11 other European countries expressed their strong reservations regarding the introduction of a Eurozone budget. Mark Rutte, Prime Minister of the Netherlands, seems to want to be the first opponent to this project and could, in the coming months, be faithful to his reputation of "Mr No".
 
All eyes are now on the Eurogroup next December. With only a few months to go before the European elections in May 2019, it will certainly be difficult for Paris to convince its partners in the Eurozone of the need to introduce a budget, as the question of budgetary expenditure is so sensitive within public opinion in some northern European countries.