After Munich : the "New Normal"

An era has ended, where our last three generations, at least in Western Europe, happily spent their lives, even when they did not know their happiness. International treaties had become worth more than the paper they were written on. Internationally recognized borders were intangible. Democracy in the modern sense - not in the original sense where leaders were within earshot of their constituents on the agora - was first of all about the rule of law, respect of a constitutional order and of its institutions. Democracies, even if frayed at the edge, were at the core of an alliance system. International aid was another pillar of a world where humanity was a recognized concept. And yes, America functioned as a benevolent hegemon, with its keen attention to self-interest balanced by a long view - whether this was about prosperity or about Manifest Destiny.

That era is over. We should get used to a "New Normal", as was often said about China under Xi Jinping. Donald Trump has proclaimed that "he who saves his Country does not Violate any Law". This amplified a statement by Vice-President JD Vance: "judges aren't allowed to control the executive's legitimate power," he wrote about U.S. court proceedings ruling against presidential decisions. The third man in the new U.S. triumvirate, Elon Musk, is key because of his power to encourage and amplify extreme social media trends. He had done his coming out at the January 7 inauguration with a salute that elderly Germans have no difficulty in recognizing: if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it’s a duck. Had we any doubt, both Elon Musk and JD Vance have come out repeatedly in support of the AfD, Europe’s most far right party with a significant audience, as Germany’s only possible savior. Let us pray that the polls, that actually weakens rather reinforces the AfD.

The change does not stop at symbols that could be downplayed. On that score, it does seem risky to dismiss the world’s richest man and serial entrepreneur as a lunatic. And as a reportedly capricious and self-centered individual, Donald Trump has done better for himself than any other U.S. president - literally wiping out the slate in his own party, very nearly doing so in Congress, and now cowering the entire federal system. Even JD Vance, as we wrote earlier, has pulled himself up with a single semi-autobiographical bestseller. The three of them make moves that are mimetic, even when they seem uncoordinated. They share, with more nuance from JD Vance, an absolute preference for authoritarianism and a personal taste for brutality. 

The script bears watching in the future. If one looks at them with a Kremlinological or Tiananmenologist eye, It is interesting that JD Vance advised the Europeans that " if American Democracy can survive ten years of Greta Thunberg’s scolding, you guys can survive a few months of Elon Musk". A few months, really? Or was this a slip of the tongue? Yet it would be foolhardy to bet early on the prospect of fallouts, just as waiting for "reform minded factions" in Beijing or Teheran has worn out even the most patient observers.

Indeed, the story does not end with symbols. Donald Trump has threatened to seize Greenland by force from Denmark, a country that has hosted there significant U.S. bases for decades. After advocating a take-over of Canada from its government currently run by "Governor Trudeau", as Musk calls the Canadian PM, and blasting Mexico more loudly than China over fentanyl, Trump now threatens a trade war of unprecedented proportions against the European Union. Steel, aluminium, cars, VAT, extraterritorial actions against American interests, unspecified French sins that always come handy. This, from the world’s number one user of extraterritorial powers - which this writer has consistently defended - and against a continent with which the balance of goods and services runs to the grand sum of 50 billion (inflated) U.S. dollars in favor of Europe-that is 0,0018% of the U.S. GDP.

Meanwhile, we really struggle to hear of any similar move contemplated vis-à-vis China, apart from an announced 10% custom surtax across the board that does not even match the renminbi depreciation of the past three years to the dollar. On the other hand, Chinese and Russian social media influencers and trolls explode with joy over the new U.S. administration’s attacks against democracy. Our far left is silently lapping up this turn of events where it need not demonize America - America is taking the job upon itself and opposing Europe.

On the surface, there might be less justification for the most common European outcry - over what is seen as Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine. This administration is launching a multiple effort - Rubio, Hegseth, Bessent, Kellog, Vance, Wittkoff -towards a solution. Yes, it is a bet that runs the risk of raising Putin’s demands to an even higher level. If this were the case, Trump’s renowned volatility would prove to be an asset.

There has been much equivocation in Europe’s support to Ukraine. Yes, European funding outstrips U.S. outlays to Ukraine since the invasion: in fact, ever since 1989, Europeans gave much more money towards Eastern European transition (and to Russia for two decades) than the United States. U.S. intelligence and weaponry has played an irreplaceable role in the conflict. Why Germany has played its part in quantities delivered, quality has been lagging far behind. The reverse is true in the case of France, where intentions outstrip the means available. Many European firms have rerouted trade channels through third countries to skirt agreed sanctions, while a mixture of misguided energy policies and opportunity costs has kept an energy dependence towards Russia for several member states. In the present confusion about any European boots on the ground after a settlement, there are understandable but concerning reluctances: 80 years after World War 2, the German public cannot accept Bundeswehr soldiers in Ukraine more than in Serbia in the 1990s. With limited means -at the most, not even an Army division for its entire armed forces, France could not do more than serve as a tripwire, and has not hinted to any front line presence: a tripwire is not supposed to stay back from borders... Even Poland, the country that has acted most decisively towards rearmament since 2022, is not willing to put its troops at risk in forward defense. Our defense of Ukraine is at the cost of Ukrainian blood, and that is an uncomfortable position in the long term. That Washington overshadows and to some extent sidelines president Zelensky is not purely a concession to Putin’s ego. It is what many Europeans would have liked to do if they actually had more sway, and not only more say, into the situation. An elected leader who will one day face the poll, Zelensky needs to keep some distance from the visible bargaining, lest he be accused of selling out - or of being a hold out to a settlement! What is frightening is the constant trade off between commercial gains against geopolitical actions that is openly sought by Donald Trump. But the provocation that is requiring Europeans to provoke all security guarantee while seeking deals for itself has a basic kernel truth: Europeans are unwilling and probably unable to provide security guarantees on their own continent. 

Launching attacks against European institutions and democratic process, teaming up with the most extreme nationalist and anti-European political forces in the continent, challenging European regulations on platforms, IA and personal data while misinformation and slander are becoming the norm on key U.S. platforms - these are all acts of direct hostility. Yes, we haven’t grasped the extent of the Great Cultural Counter-Revolution (GCCR) that is ripping apart American society. Only a year ago, many of us were suspicious of the excesses of DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) policies. America had led the trend in one direction. Today, it is zealously and violently commanding us to make a U-Turn, and directly intervening into our political process in order to force that outcome.

There was almost always a competitive edge to transatlantic relations - something that is natural for market economies but that of course included a good deal of statecraft, admitted or denied. Some would like to say today that today is just a continuation of a "frenemy" relationship, citing past disagreements as a clue. They are wrong. By acting all over the scale at the same time, America is positioning itself as an adversary of Europe, if not an outright enemy. It does not wish us well.

It is a complete paradox that France’s old attempt at sovereignty over armaments, long a dream that could only be achieved in very narrow categories and over limited quantities, becomes a justifiable security objective for Europe. At present, we should consider opening concessions to the Trump administration - purchasing more American weapons with increased defense budgets - as a negotiating mistake. This is as much true of dealing with Donald Trump as it has been true of China in the past decades: both interpret an opening as a sign of weakness and push forward as a result. And it is no other than John Bolton who is telling us this about his former boss.

Needless to say, this new agenda necessitates much other overdue changes and reforms. It is possible that another catastrophic event is needed to convince Europeans that their long peace is over. The more we wait, the more the risks will increase. 

Copyright Image : Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP

J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Volodimir Zelensky in Munich on February 14, 2025.