After Merkel: Upholding Democracy in Germany

Angela Merkel's departure in September 2021 marks a political, economic, and geopolitical turning point. What legacy will Merkel leave to her successor? How is Germany preparing for time after Merkel? In this series, Head of our Germany Program Alexandre Robinet-Borgomano and Senior Reporter Marion Van Renterghem have interviewed a number of leading economic and political actors in Germany, in order to gain insight into debates before the federal elections. In April, they spoke with Stephan Steinlein, Chief of Staff of the Federal President of Germany, about the political landscape in Germany and its underlying history. 

For nearly 16 years, Angela Merkel's Germany represented a haven of stability and moderation in a world of constant change. How would you define Angela Merkel's political legacy? 

Angela Merkel leaves behind a country that is no longer in search of itself and open to a world that has become increasingly unpredictable. A country that functions well but which will have to redefine itself to face new changes in the world and in Europe. Germany is facing several questions today: the future of its relationship with China and the United States or the possibility of maintaining a united Europe. The refugee crisis showed how important Africa and the Arab world are to Germany. It is therefore necessary to define a new relationship with these areas. 

On the European level, the term sovereignty remains a problematic concept: the idea of autonomy is unfamiliar to Germany. In its recent history (after the Second World War), Germany has never been autonomous: it is instead part of a system of alliances. In a world marked by interdependence, it prefers the term "capacity to act" (Handlungsfähigkeit). Even though there is a real desire to advance a sovereign Europe with other European actors, sovereignty remains a difficult notion in Germany. 

Most Germans, and even her political party (the CDU), have not yet realized that Merkel is leaving. However, Merkel's approach to politics is no longer unanimous. A part of the German electorate has developed a desire for strong, more charismatic, and more authoritarian personalities - comparable to Donald Trump. This aspiration is particularly keen among the electorate of the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Its supporters are very present in the Eastern regions, which are poorer than the rest of Germany. Though they also exist in relatively rich and industrialized regions, such as Baden Württemberg, where people feel threatened by the possibility of social decline. 

The AfD emerged during Merkel’s time in power as a stable political force to the right of the Christian-democratic CDU. How do you evaluate the fractures that the emergence of the AfD has caused? 

Compared to France, there is no gap between the center and the periphery in Germany. Even though some regions in Germany might feel marginalized, there is no strong opposition such as the one that exists between Paris and the rest of France. There is no misery in the East of Germany. Those who vote for the AfD are generally not the poorest, but those who are afraid of "another loss", after the ups and downs of the German reunification. Demographic change also plays an important role. In many areas in the East, women and young people have left to the West or to big cities. Those who remain behind are often poorly educated "white men". 

There is also an area along Germany's Eastern border where the AfD is particularly strong. The fear of social decline or insecurity is the main driver for voters of the AfD, especially in the East. The reunification was a painful process that lasted for almost thirty years and initially resulted in very high unemployment rates. Today, the gap is closing, and the "victims" of the reunification are gradually retiring.