Ukraine: China and Russia’s Calculated Mutual Support

The possibility of a China-Russian alliance is traditionally downplayed. Certainly, the two countries already form a "negative coalition" through their UN vetoes, and share an aversion to color revolutions. They trade extensively - Russian arms and gas, Chinese consumer goods. But there is long-term Russian mistrust and some Chinese contempt for its former "elder brother." China engages its army very sparingly or not at all, whereas Putin projects his military strength from Georgia to Donbass, Syria and Kazakhstan. 

But the situation is evolving, mainly due to the United States implementing Obama’s promise to shift in its forces towards East Asia. The US has the support of regional allies and partners who worry over a potential Chinese aggression. Just as Western sanctions over Crimea have made Putin's Russia more dependent on Beijing, Xi Jinping's China is concerned with the risks of increasing diplomatic isolation. Turning their negative coalition with Russia into a counter-alliance, or even presenting the United States and its allies with the risk of two simultaneous conflicts - in Ukraine and Taiwan - is tempting to Beijing. For the first time in a long while, China may need Russia as much as Russia needs China, which is certainly something Putin has carefully taken note of.

After massing troops on the Ukrainian border, Russia presented its demands for "security guarantees" to the United States in mid-December. In the same week, Putin held a virtual meeting with Xi. Each side highlighted the other's support in their respective reports of the meeting. The Chinese statement noted that "Russia will be the strongest defender of China's position on Taiwan-related issues" and that it "opposes any ‘small group’ in the Asia-Pacific region" - referring to both the Australia-United Kingdom-United States AUKUS alliance and the "Indo-Pacific Quad" (United States, India, Australia, Japan). According to the Russian spokesperson, "President Xi has offered to support President Putin in his efforts to secure legally binding security guarantees from the West." 

Of course, these expressions of commitment towards each other's security interests would have been even more compelling had they been delivered in a joint communiqué. Deciphering this type of language is always revealing. In the Chinese account, Xi praises Putin for resisting incitements to "sow discord" between Beijing and Moscow. This also sounds like a warning and shows that a Washington-Moscow-Beijing strategic triangle would not be to China's liking. Behind the shimmer of words, we know that China often remains dumbfounded by Russia’s military initiatives. It is also clear that Mr. Putin's defiant posturing reflects the frustration of being only a secondary consideration to the two 21^st century superpowers - the United States and China.