Did The French Regional Elections Reshuffle the Cards For April 2022? 

In May we identified three likely scenarios for the French presidential elections of April 2022. In decreasing order of probability according to the polls, we predicted the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, the victory of Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and the election of Xavier Bertrand, from the Conservative party. In the aftermath of the regional elections, which took place on June 20 and 27, the three scenarios still remain possible. Their respective probabilities, however, might have been reshuffled.

Admittedly, local elections differ from national ones, and for 63% of French people, these elections were mainly concerned with local issues, which is logical. Plus, turnout is historically lower in local elections - there has been a steep decline since the 1986 election, which generated a 77% turnout, to 2015, when only 50% of voters showed up. But this time, France reached record-low levels: by comparison, this election only gathered 33% of the French electorate. It would therefore be presumptuous to draw strong and definite conclusions from a ballot for which two out of three registered voters did not show up.

That being said, certain dynamics have clearly evolved, which could be telling for the outcome of the 2022 presidential elections.

Five facts dominated the first round of June 20:

1. the alarming extent of abstention, which peaked at 67% and was especially high among the youth (87% of the 18-24 year olds did not vote)
2. the retreat of the Rassemblement National, the Far-right party led by Marine Le Pen,
3. the weak performance of La République En Marche (LREM), the Macronian movement,
4. the weight of the serving Socialist presidents of the regions, seeking to get re-elected
5. the success of Les Républicains, the Conservative party.

The second round did little to turn the tide. However, it is not necessarily a given that any of these facts will still hold true at the presidential election ten months from now. So what should we be looking at instead?

The main change concerns Xavier Bertrand. He now seems to be the more plausible and legitimate candidate among the Conservatives. If so, his chances of being elected just increased.

Why Xavier Bertrand is now the more likely candidate of the Right

Of all the successes of the Right, Mr. Bertrand’s is the most remarkable. Six years ago, he collected 25% of the votes in the first round of the regional elections, while Marine Le Pen got 41%. This time, he got 41% while his Far-right opponent, Sébastien Chenu, only 24%. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron had appointed five serving Ministers as local candidates, to maximize the chances of securing a high score for his party LREM. Zero effect: the LREM didn’t even get the 10% that would have allowed it to pass to the second round. This now leaves a lot of political space for the Center-Right and the Right.