Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia: North Africa Gripped by Turmoil

This summer was marked by instability for the Maghreb states. The pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing structural challenges of the region, rooted in the 2019 Algerian hirak, the Moroccan Rif revolt of 2017 and the political and social instability that has plagued Tunisia since 2011. Corruption, inequality and poverty - especially in rural areas - undermine the relationship between the state and its citizens. The pandemic, which brought the economy to a halt and drastically drove gas prices down, has worsened the situation. How are we to interpret the institutional crisis that has been taking place in Tunisia for the past month, or the recent cut in diplomatic ties between Algeria and Morocco? What will the consequences for Europe and France be? Hakim El Karoui, Senior Fellow at Institut Montaigne and author of Stability in the Maghreb: an Imperative for Europe, breaks down these latest developments. 

An explosive cocktail

Algeria is in a state of political fragility. Despite having led to the departure of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the hirak of 2019 failed to bring about concrete institutional change. Whether it will transform the Algerian regime into one that is more efficient and representative of its citizen’s aspirations remains to be seen. This was the context in which the pandemic took place, with devastating consequences for Algeria: along with the challenges linked to handling the pandemic came the collapse of oil prices, which severely impacted the economy. Now the government lacks the resources needed to boost consumer spending. This bleak picture was worsened by wildfires that ravaged Kabylia in August. This unprecedented natural disaster killed 100 people, 30 of which were part of the Algerian military. The fact that these fires occurred in this contentious region also revived underlying tensions in Algerian politics, notably the relationship of this region with the central government. 

Morocco’s political situation is less tumultuous. The pandemic there was kept under control partly thanks to a strict lockdown and a vaccination campaign that began very early. Clinical trials of the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine were conducted as early as November 2020. However, multiple diplomatic events have stoked tensions these past months. One of them is Morocco’s signature of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations with Israel. Another is the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara by the United States. The third cause of agitation is the economic rapprochement between Morocco and China: over the past three years, the volume of commercial exchange between both countries has increased by 50%.
 
Finally, Tunisia is confronted by a double-pronged crisis. The first is political and marked by the rejection of the parliament by both the people and the executive branch of government. The second is financial: the Tunisian state is heavily indebted and is struggling to secure additional financing. It is in this context that the delta variant wreaked havoc in June and July. 

A summer of tensions

It is in this unstable context that on July 25, Tunisian president Kaïs Saïed dismissed the Mechichi government and suspended parliament, invoking the sanitary and political risks facing the country. In such a scenario, article 80 of the constitution grants him full powers to rule. This clause allows the president to "take measures imposed by a state of emergency [...] in case of imminent peril that threatens national integrity, security or the independence of the country and hinders the regular functioning of public authorities." This decision was supported by 91% of Tunisians, according to a Sigma Consulting / Le Maghreb survey from August 17. On August 26, Kaïs Saïed announced that the suspension of Parliament would continue indefinitely, plunging Tunisia into the unknown.