2024, a Year of Elections:
Twilight or Renewal of Democracy?

2024 broke all previous records for the number of elections around the world. More than 60 countries went to the polls including the United States, France, Great Britain, Taiwan, India, Russia, and Turkey. While holding an election does not necessarily mean that the regime organizing it is fundamentally democratic, 2024 can legitimately be described as a large-scale test for the future of democracy. We have just turned the page on 2024 and a new cycle is beginning. What is the state of democracy at the start of 2025? What initial lessons can be drawn from the various elections? Could the most democratic year in recent history also be the year of democracy’s great deconsolidation? While 2024 undeniably marked the rise or return of illiberal or anti-democratic political forces, the electoral results for the year should not be limited to this single dimension and do not allow us to conclude that democracy’s opponents have triumphed. A closer examination of four elections - the European elections on June 9, the French legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, the British general elections on July 4, and the US presidential election on November 5 - highlights that. Foreign interference, voter turnout, overall trends in the results, campaign themes, and new ways of conceiving democracy all paint a picture full of contrasts at the end of 2024. 

We can identify a number of initial lessons that may provide food for thought on the future of our democracies in the months and years to come.

1. The first is the holding of elections and the weight of foreign interference. In 2024, governments were better prepared than in the past, and such interference had, a priori, little direct material impact on the conduct and outcome of elections. Nevertheless, beyond the direct effects on the results themselves, such interference has more pernicious and long-term effects on the democracies targeted in terms of their destabilization.
    
2. Second, with regard to voter turnout: Despite an unprecedented climate of mistrust in politicians and institutions, the majority of Western countries surveyed (with the notable exception of the UK) recorded stable or rising turnout figures, which point to a form of civic vitality that should not be underestimated. We need to analyze the reasons behind it to draw some lessons for the future.
    
3. On the results of the various elections: The first thing to note is the setbacks inflicted on the majority of the political forces in power. This clearly demonstrates that global geopolitical, economic, and cultural issues played a role during the polls. The undeniable consolidation of the so-called populist parties is the second major lesson to be drawn from these results.
    
4. On the issues that drove the campaigns: the economy, purchasing power, immigration, and health top the list almost everywhere and should prompt governments to address fundamental questions of inequality and wealth distribution, as well as identity and the fear of decline or disappearance. The discrepancy between certain priority issues for voters-such as health care-and the way they are treated by the media and the political establishment is also indicative of the ability of populist leaders to impose the terms of debate. Finally, the clear retreat of environmental issues is another central lesson that emerges from this first assessment.
    
5. The final observation concerns the way politics is conceived of and conducted today: Democracy, like politics, increasingly resembles a "product"-for some, an outdated product to be replaced by something else. 
    

Rather than speaking of decline, let us face the metamorphoses of democracy in order to better defend it and adapt it to the upcoming challenges in 2025.