Migration Policy in Germany: Major Shift or Stagnation?

In September 2015, Angela Merkel decided to open German borders to the flow of refugees arriving in Europe. This “extraordinary decision” led to 1.1 million asylum seekers entering the country in 2015. Last September’s federal elections pinpointed the German chancellor’s political weakening. The far-right, anti-immigration AfD’s historic breakthrough, granting it seats in the Bundestag, has been a  challenge to Angela Merkel’s migration policy for  the last few years: on 8 October 2017, she agreed for the first time to cap at 200 000 the number of refugees entering German territory annually. Michaela Wiegel, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung correspondent in Paris, shares her analysis on this matter.

Do Angela Merkel’s recent declarations regarding her migration policy represent an important shift?

Her statements can only be understood in the current context of coalition talks, here between two sister parties: Merkel’s CDU and Bavaria’s CSU. The CSU is increasingly being challenged by the AfD, as shown by its disappointing results in Bavaria in the last election. The Bavarian party holds Angela Merkel’s migration policy responsible for its stalemate and has thus asked for concessions on this point. The negotiations did not lead to an exact number but to a compromise stating that annual intakes will not exceed 200 000. The odd expression of “breathing limit” used to coin this somewhat vague agreement, in fact, characterizes it well.

Far from representing an actual shift in migration policy, it symbolizes a willingness to recover control of entries into German territory, ahead of elections that will be held next year in Bavaria. Angela Merkel had indeed warned that the recent welcoming of a massive amount of refugees in Germany was an exceptional measure responding to an equally exceptional migration crisis. Rather than representing a shift in the Chancellor’s policy, these declarations suggest a reassertion of the singular  nature of her decision to open Germany’s borders since 2015 -  a decision that she stands by.

Does immigration play a central role in ongoing talks regarding the future government coalition?

The talks have only just started and the agreement between the CDU and the CSU is a mere prerequisite. Immigration holds a central position in political debates in Bavaria because of its geographical position. Indeed, located at the border with Austria, itself neighboring Hungary, Bavaria has always been on the path of migrants looking to settle in Western Europe.

Yet immigration is not a central theme of the opening government talks since the Greens are in favor of welcoming migrants while the FDP enjoys a strong relationship with employer organizations, which are also open to welcoming migrants as well, since they represent a well-needed labor force.

However, the new government coalition must take into account the AfD’s progress, which used immigration as a major campaign theme, taking advantage of the fears of its electorate as a springboard to boost its electoral results. It is thus necessary to address the AfD’s electorate, which testifies of a fear of migration movements in Germany. This fear has to be considered, namely through better immigration management at the European level.

How do German political leaders perceive the French migration policy?

The widely shared impression is that France, throughout the last presidential term, failed to support Germany and other European countries in sharing the responsibility of immigration. However, Emmanuel Macron’s recent announcements regarding his willingness to welcome 10 000 refugees - which represents an important part of the 50 000 that the EU wants to accept and allocate to different Member States - were largely celebrated in Germany.

German political leaders were especially enthusiastic about the French President’s proposal to Europeanize migration policy, namely through better external border control and more efficient information sharing mechanisms, as part of a European asylum office. Thereby, an application for asylum that has been previously rejected by a country will not be reexamined in another EU country, thus unclogging dedicated services.

Broadly speaking, closer Franco-German cooperation on immigration issues seems possible.