Home
Expressions by Montaigne
Looking Eastward: Between Unrest and Diplomacy

Institut Montaigne features a platform of Expressions dedicated to debate and current affairs. The platform provides a space for decryption and dialogue to encourage discussion and the emergence of new voices.

12/10/2020

Looking Eastward: Between Unrest and Diplomacy

Three questions to Nicu Popescu

Print

Share

Looking Eastward: Between Unrest and Diplomacy

Nicu Popescu

Director, Wider Europe programme

Protests, conflicts and social unrest have been spreading across various countries of the post-Soviet space. Though several of these countries have dealt with the democratic transition or with being on the fringes of Europe, it would be hasty to determine that the issues that plague them are the same. Russia has multiple roles to play, as does Europe. Nicu Popescu, Director of the Wider Europe programme at the European Council of Foreign Relations looks to the countries to the East of Europe with the details and particularities that characterize their various socio-political situations.

We have been witnessing protests in Khabarovsk in Far East Russia and Belarus, conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, protests in Kyrgyzstan and ongoing war in Ukraine. Is there a common thread throughout these unrests, and how does being part of the post-Soviet space tie into that?

There are some common threads but not necessarily between all of these events. Certainly societies in Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan want to be better governed. They want less corruption, and more fairness in the way their countries are run. And the political leadership is not delivering and responding to these expectations. In this sense, I think the story has wider implications. You hear a lot about the rise of illiberal political forces in the US, in France, in Hungary or Poland, and how large strata of the population seem to be supporting such illiberal trends. I see the opposite trend in the region to the East of the EU. There is a strong public demand for more political pluralism, not less. These demands are not necessarily dominant everywhere, but such a demand is growing.

Russia as being less influential in most - though not all - post-Soviet countries than it was 15 or 20 years ago.

What is the role that Russia has aimed to play in this space throughout the years, and has it lived up to it? How so?

Russia’s role is very different from one country to another. Of course for Russia, countries like Ukraine, Belarus or Kazakhstan have been certainly more important than Tajikistan or Moldova. With this came different levels of Russian diplomatic, military or economic investments in trying to influence the situation in these different countries.

Overall, I see Russia as being less influential in most - though not all - post-Soviet countries than it was 15 or 20 years ago. Even the growing Russian use of the military – be it in Georgia or Ukraine – was an indicator of Russian incapacity to achieve its foreign policy goals through economic, diplomatic, or soft power means.

So in recent years, I notice a paradox: Russia is more present with troops, diplomatic initiatives, or various deals across many parts of the world – in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Venezuela. But, in many post-Soviet countries, Russia continues to lose clout.

What are the EU's diplomatic ambitions amongst these conflicts, given the current geopolitical stakes in the region?

EU diplomatic ambitions are very different across the post-Soviet space as well. EU interests are also dictated by geography. The proximity to the EU of Ukraine and Moldova certainly make them receive much more EU attention than Armenia or Azerbaijan, let alone the countries of Central Asia. So there is no such thing as a uniform set of EU policies or ambitions towards the post-Soviet states. In some spheres, countries like Ukraine and Moldova are more tied to the EU now than to Russia. For example, Ukraine and Moldova are much more economically integrated with the EU than with Russia now: almost 70% of Moldovan external trade, and more than 50% of Ukrainian external trade is with the European Union, while their trade with Russia is around 10%.

But I do believe it is important to look at the next phases of EU ambitions in foreign policy. We hear a lot about the need for Europe to be more ambitious in security and foreign policy. We hear calls coming from President Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, High Representative Josep Borrell on the need for Europe to speak with a stronger voice in foreign affairs, to be more geopolitical and to be more sovereign in its decisions.

The EU as a whole is too shy in developing a network of stronger security partnerships with states across the neighborhood.

But it is now time to turn these words into concrete actions. It is time for Europe to start developing closer security partnerships with countries that are close to the EU in foreign policy terms. Among them are of course Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, but also Tunisia, or Morocco. I think the EU as a whole is too shy in developing a network of stronger security partnerships with states across the neighborhood. The US is developing such links, Turkey is developing such links, China and Russia are also developing security links with the EU’s neighbors. And I see Europe behaving as if it is afraid to develop intelligence and military cooperation with too many of its neighbors, be it in the EU’s Eastern or Southern neighborhoods, or in Africa for that matter. How can the voice of the EU be taken seriously in Beijing, Ankara or Moscow, if its member states are not willing to give the EU institutions support in developing closer security partnerships with its own neighbors? Together with the former foreign ministers of Ukraine and Georgia, we recently called on the EU to launch a new initiative designed to boost EU cooperation in security matters with its Eastern neighbors. We call it "the Eastern Partnership Security Compact".

But I do believe it is in Europe’s interest to develop similar "security compacts" with a few selected countries from the Middle East and Africa. And my sincere hope is that France, which is among the most ambitious EU member states when it comes to foreign and security policies, would lead this new effort to boost EU security links with its neighbors to the South and to the East.

Copyright: STRINGER / AFP

Print

Share