A Light at the End of the Libyan Tunnel?

A decade ago, Tunisia’s "Jasmine Revolution" opened the way for the Arab Spring in the region, creating both new opportunities and raising new challenges. In the midst of this democratic wave, the Libyan people found new political aspirations. But among the countries that attempted to reach political evolution, if not revolution, Libya paid the highest cost: political instability, civil war, and migratory crisis. In the second part of our interview of Youssef Chahed, Prime Minister of Tunisia between 2016 and 2020, we reflect on the Libyan situation. 

Hakim El Karoui: Let’s begin with the Libyan Crisis that still blights the region. What impact does the Libyan situation have on Tunisia? How do we interpret the stance taken by the Europeans? What about the Arabs and Turks? 

YC: The situation in Libya has had major consequences for Tunisia, particularly in terms of security. The 500 km border between Libya and Tunisia has often been a critical concern due to its permeability, and it has been facilitating the circulation of weapons and radicalized fighters. Almost all the attacks perpetrated in Tunisia were actually prepared in Libya, by Tunisians. The insecure border also allowed the crossing into Tunisia of foreign fighters who had travelled to combat zones-including some 3,000 Tunisian nationals. The implementation of electronic surveillance has now largely secured the border; however, we are still facing the risk of those going back to Libya from Syria and to Tunisia from Sudan. Dealing with these foreign fighters, even if they are incarcerated, is a complex issue in which we’ve gained great expertise. 

The collapse of the Libyan state has also had a strong economic impact on Tunisia. Almost 300,000 Tunisians who worked in Libya found themselves unemployed. Libya was also Tunisia’s second-largest trading partner after France, and bilateral trade ending was a massive loss. Southern Tunisia - a prosperous area that benefited greatly from Libyan trade - was particularly affected by the border closure and loss of business opportunities. 

What’s more, a number of factors led to interference from foreign powers on our borders. The international response between 2016 and 2019 was poorly coordinated, most notably the notorious absence of the United States in addressing the Libyan issue. Meanwhile, Europe’s stance was inconsistent and support from UN representatives was weak. There has been no dialog between the region’s countries, who are best placed to provide a clear understanding of the realities on the ground. In this sense, Tunisia can play a key role in resolving the Libyan conflict. Historically close to the Libyan people, Tunisia has good relations with both parties to the conflict and could take part in finding a sustainable solution. But maintaining its historical position of neutrality, Tunisia did not get involved. 

HEK: Is the formation of an interim government and the announcement of parliamentary and presidential elections in December 2021 a sign that the deadlock in Libya has been broken? 

YC: In the past weeks, there have been some positive signs indicating an end to the deadlock in Libya, in particular the establishment of a new interim government. But we still need to closely monitor some major issues.