India Between Solar Energy and Coal: From a “Green Image” to a “Green Façade”?

What’s more, even if India did meet these objectives, its current policies and actions are only in line with a limitation of global temperatures under the 2°C mark, which stands above the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C goal. According to European observers in charge of climate negotiations with India, this is largely a result of the country’s lack of a long-term plan to decarbonize its economy, partly due to the crucial importance that economic growth bears on the national agenda, and even if that growth comes at the expense of the environment.

This is evident from some of the contradictions that still characterize India’s policies towards renewable energies. Some efforts could easily be ramped up today, as is the case for rooftop solar installations, an area that has not been exploited to its full potential at the national level. In the transport sector, the Niti Aayog (the successor of the Planning Commission of India) estimates that about 1.7 billion tons of CO₂ could be avoided if India adopted greener policies. For instance, India already set a target of a 30% share of electric vehicles (EV) in new sales for 2030. Yet, according to the Climate Action Tracker, the share of EV sales (including two and three wheelers) at the national level would need to stand between 80 and 95% by 2030, and 100% by 2040, for it to be compatible with the Paris Agreement.

… but even more in fossil energy

While in the past seven years India has invested ₹5.2 trillion ($70 billion) in renewable energy, investments in the fossil fuel industry still accounted for up to ₹245 trillion ($3.3 trillion) despite a 4% drop between 2015 and 2019. 

Coal directly benefits from these investments. Its production is expected to increase to one billion ton by 2024, from current levels of 716 million tons in the 2020-2021 fiscal year (which begins on April 1^st and ends on March 31^st). According to the Central Electricity Authority, coal capacity is projected to increase from 202 GW in 2021 to 266 GW by 2029 and 2030. India is home to the second largest coal-fired power plant pipeline in the world. Its coal production is increasing and is on track to reach a record high 700 million ton in 2020 and 2021. Furthermore, in June 2020 and for the first time ever, the government launched an auction for the private sector with 41 coal mining blocks. This should further intensify the pressure on India’s ecologically fragile forests, as most of its coal mines are located in jungle territory.

Currently, India’s reliance on coal is the main reason for the country’s refusal to seriously envision decarbonization. When rating India’s targets based on modelled domestic pathways, the think tank Climate Action Tracker labels India’s performance as "highly insufficient". That is quite simply because coal still represents 70% of the country’s energy supply. According to a BP study, in 2040, coal will still represent 48% of the primary energy consumption of commercial fuels in India, while renewable energy will account for only 16%. Granted that the growth rate of the economy remains the same, this means that the country’s CO₂ emissions will have doubled to 5Gt by 2040. At that point, India’s share of global emissions will have increased from 7% today to 14%. Other studies even suggest that the doubling could occur prior to 2040, or even 2030. 

In the face of these accusations, the Indian government bases its argument on four points. First, that Western countries are historically responsible for climate change. Secondly, that India’s per capita CO₂ emissions remain very low. Thirdly, that growth is the country’s top priority. And finally, that the more economically developed countries are not spending the $100 billion they committed to at the 2009 Copenhagen summit, to help less developed countries advance coherent decarbonization strategies (only $80 billion were allocated to these goals last year). All this is true, but so is the fact that India’s energy transition would work in the country’s national interest. Should the Modi government refuse to engage in this process, short-term economic growth will not be sustainable and human security will ultimately risk being at stake, as dozens of millions of villagers and fishermen will be forced to relocate around the country.

Copyright: ROBERTO SCHMIDT / AFP