Hong Kong Seen from Taiwan

Historically, the DPP embodies the Taiwanese struggle against authoritarianism, the defense of individual rights and the promotion of democratic values. The more salient the question of values and the sovereignty issue are in the electoral race, the greater the chance of DPP victory.

Her main opponent from the Kuomintang (KMT), Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu, has failed so far to show similar clarity and consistency. Han famously declared that Taiwan would never accept "one country, two systems", "unless it is over my dead body." But on a trip to Hong Kong, Macao and Shenzhen last March, he accepted an invitation to a closed-doors meeting off the record at the Liaison Office of the Chinese government – the entity through which Beijing rules the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, at least on the most important matters. If this was intended as a calibrated move to create some space for strategic ambiguity, the risk did not pay off.

To his audience in China, Han was offering space to pretend that the KMT would not seek open confrontation over "one country, two systems." To his public in Taiwan, he was aiming to demonstrate his ability to reopen communication channels with the PRC in order to negotiate economic agreements (the official purpose of his trip was to win markets for Taiwanese agricultural products). But perhaps inevitably for someone without strong credentials as a leader, his ambiguous stance mostly raised doubts in Taiwan that he may pursue a hidden agenda in cooperation with Beijing. 

The Hong Kong crisis raises the bar for the opposition to convince the electorate that a pro-China business stance can coexist with the resolute defense of Taiwan’s political system and social model. In power under the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou (2008-2016), the KMT also faced a social movement led by the youth against its push to conclude with Beijing a service trade agreement without democratic oversight. The 2014 Sunflower movement resulted in an occupation of Taiwan’s Parliament and the rising influence of a new generation of social activists. It also became a major source of inspiration for Hong Kong. For Hong Kong citizens who value political freedom, Taiwan is an attractive destination, as shown by the increase by 28% of Hong Kong emigration to Taiwan during the first half of 2019. 

This human proximity is perhaps what former Hong Kong chief executive Tung Chee-hwa really had in mind when he blamed "foreign forces" in Taiwan for the demonstrations and the violence. But he seemed to allude to organized and covert government support. He provided no evidence however, and there is none in the public domain either. In reality, the signs point in the exact opposite direction. Apart from political declarations in support of free democratic elections in Hong Kong as the only way out of the crisis and moral encouragement for the pro-democracy activists, the Taiwanese government is watching idly how the situation develops.

In this context, what would be the impact of more violent law enforcement action in Hong Kong, or the deployment of the People’s Armed Police Force in the name of counterterrorism? There is concern in Taiwan that Beijing is already trying to instill fear in the Taiwanese society through violent law enforcement and the untraceable manipulation of gangs in Hong Kong. More violence would undoubtedly send a shockwave, but would likely reinforce the spirit of resistance in Taiwan. 

Taiwan so far benefits from heightened US-China strategic competition. The Tsai administration has launched the 2019-2021 "Action Plan for Welcoming Overseas Taiwanese Businesses to Return to Invest in Taiwan" and the early results have been promising. Taiwanese industries are key actors in the ICT global supply chains and have historically thrived on adjusting to the demand for manufacturing solutions emanating from the US market. They are essential partners if the Trump administration’s strategy to reorganize the global supply chains away from the Chinese Mainland is to succeed. Taiwan also benefits in the area of military security, with new US arms sales, and frequent shows of force by the US Navy in the Taiwan Strait. The fear that the United States will one day betray Taiwan again, like in the 1970s, will never completely disappear but the level of trust in the Trump administration is currently rather high in Taipei. 

The choice of the Chinese Communist Party to view and to practise "one country two systems" as a phase of transition to the full absorption of Hong Kong within the PRC is the source of the unrest in Hong Kong and has a cost on cross-strait relations as well. When he was mainly thinking of "one country, two systems" as a way to maintain coexistence between socialism and capitalism rather than between an authoritarian state and an open and free society, Deng Xiaoping had promised in 1984: "Our policies with regard to Hong Kong will remain unchanged for 50 years, and we mean this." But he undid his promise in the same interview, with a warning. "The crux of the matter, the decisive factor, is whether the policy is correct. If it is not, it will change; otherwise it won't." That it is more likely to change in terms of reduced autonomy for Hong Kong will make matters worse for Beijing.

Copyright : Sam YEH / AFP