Germany: Towards the Return of a Grand Coalition? Three Questions to Michaela Wiegel

The German elections held on 24 September 2017 constrain Angela Merkel’s party to seek a new government partner. On 19 November, the collapse of the negotiations aiming to form a government with the Green party and the liberals triggered an unprecedented political crisis in the country. While Europe is attentive to the situation in Germany, as it is usually a source of stability for the continent, the Chancellor finally reached a preliminary agreement with the SPD on 12 January 2018, opening the way to a renewed grand coalition. What does this agreement contain? What does it mean for Germany and for Europe? Michaela Wiegel, Paris correspondent for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, shares her analysis.

The return of a grand coalition was well received in Europe, but is this good news for the German political landscape?

The return of a grand coalition in Germany is not certain yet. The agreement reached between the CDU/CSU and the SPD on 12 January is actually only a pre-agreement. There is still a long way to go. SPD delegates will first have to cast their vote in Bonn on 21 January, before all party members do the same. If the pre-agreement is approved by the majority on both occasions, the real coalition negotiations will then begin.

The 28-page Sondierung, which resulted from the negotiations on 12 January, aims to outline a possible agreement, which means its content is rather vague and voluntarily open. Possibilities are mentioned but the detailed measures will be defined during the real negotiations.

In Germany as in France, leaders of traditional parties’ terms are nearing an end and their legitimacy is contested by a large part of their political base. This is the case of Martin Schulz (SPD), Angela Merkel (CDU) and Horst Seehofer (CSU). The latter has already announced his withdrawal from the position of Minister-President of Bavaria. The return of a grand coalition is not a sign of renewal but rather that of  a stand-by position preceding a renewal similar to that which occurred in France. There is no other solution for the moment, but it is necessary to avoid an extended transition period.

If everything goes according to plan, we should have a new government in Berlin on 1 April. But, even if it is not the most likely option, the process can still derail.

Is Angela Merkel weakened politically?

This long process of forming a government weakens Angela Merkel despite the honorable result she obtained on 24 September, especially for someone who has been in power for twelve years (33%). Her difficulty in forming a government and finding partners undeniably undermined her political power. The question of her succession arises today, which is never positive for a politician. 

Regarding the pre-agreement, it embodies the main political stances of her party. She will thus be able to implement them. 

It is difficult to tell what Angela Merkel's European vision is, because she seldom pronounces great programmatic speeches. However, she has always stood up for Europe in fateful moments. It was the case when the question of Greece’s exit from the eurozone arose. It was also the case during the first failed government negotiations with the FDP. One of the main reasons for this failure was the liberal party’s lack of commitment to Europe. Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, wished to include in the coalition contract that he was opposed to the idea of ​​a eurozone budget, similar to what  had been done during government negotiations in the Netherlands. Angela Merkel chose to keep all the doors open in order to start negotiations with Emmanuel Macron on reforms at the European level. By accepting the failure of negotiations with the FDP, she showed that Germany could not reason like a small country like Holland does, and that it could not reject all of France’s proposals. 

What exactly does the coalition pre-agreement contain in terms of European policy?

One may be surprised by the somewhat vague character of this pre-agreement. This is because the document is not a coalition agreement, its main purpose is for both parties to express their willingness to negotiate in order to eventually design an actual agreement. 

It should be noted that unlike in previous agreements, Europe appears in the first part of the document. It is therefore displayed as the priority and could be the hallmark of the future government. A eurozone budget, linked to the possibility of intervening in crisis situations to stabilize certain countries, is mentioned. This is in line with what Emmanuel Macron suggests. There is therefore a real desire to move forward on the eurozone.

The pre-agreement also emphasizes the necessary cooperation between France and Germany. It is, however, hesitant on defence and security.