European Aviation Summit: Why the Future of Low-Carbon Aviation is at Stake in Toulouse

As Institut Montaigne points out in the report, Decarbonized Aviation: Now Boarding, air transport provides a form of mobility that cannot be substituted by alternative modes of transportation. In particular, for long distance traveling or accessing specific geographical areas (e.g. islands). Moreover, aviation acts as a catalyst for connectivity, innovation and productivity. The ATAG indicates that a 10% increase in air traffic would result in a 0.5% growth in global GDP per capita over the long term. The sector also supports 44.8 million jobs in tourism worldwide. On a European scale, the aeronautics industry provides 13.5 million direct and indirect jobs. In France, the aeronautics sector is one of the main industrial sectors, representing 74 billion euros in sales in 2019, two-thirds of which derive from exports. 

The aviation sector’s greenhouse gas emissions represent 2 to 3% of global emissions, and 10% of the transport sector's emissions. Strong and immediate action to support its decarbonization is essential to confirming the sector as a world-class player in terms of competitiveness and technology. In the future, this will allow aviation to meet the expectations of citizens, public authorities and stakeholders. 

European commitments to decarbonize air transport

The EU is among the regional players who have made strong commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Member states intend to accelerate decarbonization by integrating the aviation sector into their collective efforts. The "Fit for 55" plan unveiled by the Commission in the summer of 2021 sets out ambitious targets to achieve a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. If these measures are adopted by the European parliament and the EU member states, there will be substantial changes for players in the aviation sector.

Currently, intra-European flights are exempted from a tax on kerosene. In the future, European authorities will need to gradually introduce taxes for such flights. This will also strengthen the competitiveness of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) as an alternative to kerosene. 

The Commission's plan also proposes to develop the demand of airlines, as well as the supply, of SAFs, by supporting the production of a competitive European SAF industry. The ReFuelEU Aviation initiative intends to impose a mandate on fuel suppliers to include SAF in aviation fuel supplied at EU airports. Starting from 2025, the Commission will introduce a gradual increase of the share of SAFs in kerosene, by 2% per year, with the goal of achieving a mandatory threshold of 63% of SAFs (biofuels and synthetic fuels) within conventional airplane fuels by 2050. Moreover, by the beginning of 2022, France had already introduced a mandatory threshold of 1% of SAF in kerosene. However, these measures risk distorting the competition among European airlines. In its report, Institut Montaigne therefore recommends the establishment of a European compensation mechanism for flights departing from the EU in the short term. This should serve to subsidize the incorporation of SAF without additional costs compared to kerosene. In the medium term, a possible solution could involve aligning the mandatory inclusion of SAF in kerosene with the point of origin of the passenger's journey. In the long term, the ICAO should implement these measures in a uniform manner at the global level, in order to avoid distortions in competition, and support the global demand of SAFs. At the same time, it should aim to promote the development of multiple production channels for SAFs. 

Beyond the concrete commitments of France and the EU, it is essential to develop a common roadmap for all countries at the ICAO level. Decarbonizing a sector that is global in nature should not be limited to regional commitments, and requires strong international cooperation.

Beyond commitments: what’s the roadmap?

The Toulouse Declaration recognizes that decarbonization is a "complex challenge, which should be addressed through a variety of measures". However, the paper fails to deliver an operational roadmap to achieve this transition. The signatory countries recognize the importance of improving aircraft technology, flight and ground operations, fleet renewal, the use of SAF (which requires the establishment of a supply chain), market-based measures, carbon pricing, financial incentives, and support for environmental and climate innovation in the sector. It also recognizes that the measures for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 are varied, and require increased partnerships between industry, energy providers and governments. 

Based on the industry roadmap, "Waypoint 2050", the report identifies four priority measures. The first concerns technological developments, amounting to 34% of all decarbonization efforts. The second measure considers the optimization of flight and ground operations, representing 7% in the equation. Sustainable aviation fuels will amount to 53% of the decarbonization effort, representing the lion’s share of efforts to implement carbon neutrality. Finally, compensation measures represent 6% of the decarbonization effort. 

The report identifies technological developments as a priority, and recommends a gradual reduction in kerosene consumption. It also emphasizes the importance of the current investment momentum in breakthrough technologies, such as new engines or hydrogen-powered aircraft; the EU Strategy has set out to make zero-emission large aircraft market-ready by 2035. Certification models for these new technologies should be prepared early on. Above all, the main method for decarbonization is the use of sustainable aviation fuels, including biofuels. These are primarily derived from biomass, such as agricultural crops or human waste. SAFs should also include synthetic fuels, derived from industrial processes combining CO₂ captured from the air, and hydrogen. These technologies will represent the bulk of decarbonization efforts for long-haul flights.

Institut Montaigne furthermore highlights that there is a limited availability of biofuels for air transport. Hence, synthetic fuels should be the preferred way to decarbonize the sector. In addition, the development of this pathway represents a short-term opportunity to stimulate the hydrogen industry. France is already devoting a budget of 7 billion euros until 2030 for the development of decarbonized hydrogen. However, the manufacturing process for synthetic fuels requires large quantities of decarbonized electrical energy. In light of this energy challenge, the entire global electricity production system should be re-examined. According to the report, the required level of investment for decarbonizing all transport by 2050 is $1,000 billion per year. This level of investment is accessible if proactive measures are put in place, through coordinated action by governments, electric power producers, and industry players.

Beyond commitments to carbon neutrality, the next step for decarbonizing air transport should be defining and adopting a global roadmap shared by all governments and players in the aviation sector. This roadmap should pay special attention to investments in decarbonized electric energy. 

Copyright: Stefani Reynolds / AFP