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01/09/2022

The Rationale Behind Institut Montaigne’s New Series: Ukraine Shifting the World Order

The Rationale Behind Institut Montaigne’s New Series: Ukraine Shifting the World Order
 Michel Duclos
Author
Special Advisor and Resident Senior Fellow - Geopolitics and Diplomacy

It seems dangers are lurking around every corner this fall. Inflation and the risk of recession are weighing down the global economy. Climate change is taking a growing toll on the planet. Tensions between Beijing and Washington sharpened on Taiwan. And above all, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked the return of war in Europe. On February 24, we were hurled into an alternate universe where the unthinkable became a reality.

In a new series of essays, Ukraine Shifting the World Order, Institut Montaigne invites its readers to take a step back and look beyond current events. We turned to a group of distinguished authors to help us explore the following broad question: how is the war in Ukraine reshaping the world order? For many of them, behind this question naturally lies another: is the war in Ukraine not the product or symptom of a significant shift in the balance of power?

The direction we took in this survey and the essays the authors chose to write were inspired by several developing themes. First, it was apparent that significant blocs are forming again: Russia and China, Western powers that are compelled to close ranks, and the Global South that, for the most part, refuses to pick a side. Incidentally, this implicit “declaration of independence” by the Global South may be one of the most noteworthy developments since the onset of the war in February.

To help explain the "great game" that is being set in motion, we asked thinkers around the world - Russia, China, India, Brazil, and countries across Africa and the Near East - to share their views.

Readers will discover a forum for different thoughts and emotions, the foundation upon which the geopolitical crisis we are experiencing was built.

We also reached out to analysts in the United States and Europe but strived to maintain a wide spectrum of opinions. This series will not be showcasing a Western vision of the world or advancing one specific argument. Instead, readers will discover a forum for different thoughts and emotions, the foundation upon which the geopolitical crisis we are experiencing was built. The main angle of the series is geopolitical, although we made sure to ask a prominent French expert for her economic insights. This dimension is essential to all geopolitical issues.

Second, Russia’s latest onslaught did not just rattle the world. It also precipitated a number of regional realignments: in the Near East, oil producers are in a stronger position whereas countries that depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports are at a disadvantage. The time has clearly come for the transatlantic community to decide on the extent of America’s commitment to Europe and the ability of Europeans to work together. Many wonder if signs of contagion from the war in Europe could start to appear in the Asia-Pacific.

On all of these issues, our readers will enjoy edifying analyses penned by our group of experts. On Europe in particular, an issue close to Institut Montaigne’s heart, we received invaluable contributions.

Lastly, towards what new order, or disorder, are we headed? In a world of intensifying competition, how much room is left for cooperation, regulatory mechanisms of global exchanges, or arms control at a time when nuclear threats are also resurfacing? Should we worry that geopolitical rivalries will squash vital efforts to address pressing global issues - including climate change, health, and development - on which humankind’s very survival depends?

The views expressed are personal opinions, not official ones, and do not represent Institut Montaigne’s views. Some of the authors answering our questions are seasoned "globalists" while others are not. We have aimed to gather perspectives that may overlap with official discourses, but above all, are indicative of major trends in the global debate. Together, they should help our audience understand the landscape of this new universe into which we were launched on February 24, 2022.
 

The views expressed are personal opinions, not official ones, and do not represent Institut Montaigne’s views.

Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP

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